Duke vs. Mississippi:

After all of the big games on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl between the Duke Blue Devils and Mississippi Rebels may not seem like a premier matchup on Thursday January 2, but one of these teams will finish the season as a 10-win program.

This is a huge line by bowl game standards and especially when you consider that the teams are both 9-3 going into this standalone contest, but some noteworthy losses for Duke and a clear talent gap cannot be overlooked. We also have a fairly shocking lack of absences on the Ole Miss side of the ledger.

 

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Gator Bowl: Duke Blue Devils vs. Ole Miss Rebels (-17, 51.5)

How To Watch The Gator Bowl

When: Tuesday December 2, 7:30 p.m. ET

How: ESPN

Where: EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL

This line is not big only because Duke will be without starting QB Maalik Murphy, starting RB Star Thomas, and others. It was big to begin with, as Ole Miss opened around a 14-point favorite. The announcements on the Blue Devils side have simply caused this line to keep inching up.

Henry Belin IV will get the call here for the Blue Devils. He completed his lone pass attempt of the season for seven yards. Murphy, who is now at Oregon State, had the other 421 pass attempts. Belin did have five carries for 23 yards, so his legs may be a factor in this game that the Rebels will have to keep in mind. He is an unknown in a lot of respects and will be behind an offensive line that only allowed 12 sacks. Murphy did have 26 TD passes, but also had 12 interceptions, so this may not be a massive downgrade.

That said, the 6-foot-3 sophomore was just 13-of-26 last season in a relief capacity. He was a three-star out of Cardinal Hayes High School and the fourth-ranked recruit out of New York in his 2022 class. But, he hasn’t seen the field much and draws an Ole Miss defense that led the nation in sacks with 52. The next closest team among those with 12 games played is actually Duke with 40.

So, Jaxson Dart will have to be smart and protect the ball while avoiding negative plays. He had a 25/6 TD/INT ratio and threw for nearly 3,900 yards. He also rushed for 452 yards on 112 carries. Dart may be missing some popular targets, though. Antwane Wells Jr. (27-521-5) and Tre Harris (60-1030-7) probably won’t play. Right tackle Micah Pettus has also moved on to Florida State.

Honestly, the biggest question about this bowl game is Ole Miss’s motivation. Head coach Lane Kiffin has been subtweeting the College Football Playoff Committee based on the quality of the games and this is a Rebels bunch that feels like they should have been playing for a National Championship, not a Gator Bowl win. A motivated, angry, chip-on-their-shoulder version of the Rebels could be mobilized for a blowout. The opposite of that could let an inferior Duke team hang around.

Personally, I think we’re more inclined to see the former. My guess is that Ole Miss goes out there and puts up a statement win in hopes of maybe being ranked higher going into the 2025 season, as your preseason ranking arguably matters even more in the 12-team playoff so long as you can maintain it.

Pick: Ole Miss -17

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