Week 9 of the College Football regular season is in the books and now bettors turn their attention to Week 10. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Vanderbilt at Texas (-1.5, 44.5)
Vanderbilt (7-1, ranked 9th) just outlasted Missouri 17-10, covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Texas (6-2, ranked 20th) just edged Mississippi State 45-38 in overtime but failed to cover as 7.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Texas listed as high as a 3.5-point home favorite.
We’ve seen the line tumble in favor of Vanderbilt, with the Commodores moving from +3.5 to +1.5. A big reason for this drop is the status of Texas QB Arch Manning, who is in concussion protocol and officially listed as questionable for this game.
At Circa, Vanderbilt is receiving 29% of spread bets but 60% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy bet discrepancy in favor of the road dog plus the points.
Short road dogs +4 or less are 650-575 ATS (53%) with a 3% ROI since 2012. When two SEC teams face off in conference play, the dog is 57-43 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI since 2024.
Vanderbilt has value as a “dog who can score” system match, averaging 37.4 PPG (9th) and 433.6 yards per game (33rd). Meanwhile, Texas is averaging 29 PPG (50th) and 375.6 yards per game (79th).
We’ve also seen this total drop from 46 to 44.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 31% of bets but a whopping 89% of dollars, a massive sharp contrarian bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Texas Tech (-7, 52.5) at Kansas State
Texas Tech (7-1, ranked 13th) just destroyed Oklahoma State 42-0, covering as 37.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Kansas State (4-4) just brushed aside Kansas 42-17, easily winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Texas Tech listed as a 7-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 76% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Red Raiders.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Texas Tech remain relatively stagnant at -7. In fact, any time the books move up to -7.5 we’ve seen sharp buyback on Kansas State plus the hook, dropping the line back down to Kansas State +7.
Kansas State is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the week as the Wildcats are only receiving only one-quarter of tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised 3:30 p.m. ET game on FOX.
At Circa, Kansas State is receiving 55% of spread bets but a whopping 92% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the home dog.
Home conference dogs are 64-49 ATS (57%) with an 8% ROI this season and 176-143 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2024.
The Wildcats also have buy-low value as an unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Unranked dogs are 62-52 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI this season and 170-143 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2024.
Those looking to back the ugly dog would be wise to shop around, as FanDuel and ESPN BET are offering Wildcats +7.5 (-120) while the rest of the market sits at +7.
Oklahoma at Tennessee (-3, 56.5)
Oklahoma (6-2, ranked 18th) just came up short against Ole Miss 34-26, losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Tennessee (6-2, ranked 14th) just blew out Kentucky 56-34, easily covering as 7.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 3.5-point home favorite.
The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Volunteers at home.
However, despite receiving 71% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Tennessee fall from -3.5 to -3.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering the Volunteers to begin with? Because respected pro money has jumped on Oklahoma plus the hook, dropping the line in favor of the unpopular road dog.
Oklahoma is one of the top contrarian plays of the week as the Sooners are only receiving 29% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, primetime game at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The Sooners have buy-low value as a dog who failed to cover the previous week against a sell-high home favorite who easily covered the previous week.
Short road dogs +4 or less are 650-575 ATS (53%) with a 3% ROI since 2012. When two SEC teams face off in conference play, the dog is 57-43 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI since 2024.
Those looking to back the primetime dog should shop around for the hook, as Fan Duel and ESPN BET are offering Oklahoma +3.5 (-120) while the rest of the market sits at +3.
Sharps have also leaned over, raising the total from 56 to 56.5, with some shops touching 57.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 83% of bets and 97% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 60% of bets and 71% of dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy split in favor of a higher scoring game.
