Week 10 of the College Football regular season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 11. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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BYU (-4, 40.5) at Utah

BYU (8-0, ranked 9th) just took down UCF 37-24, easily winning outright as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Utah (4-4) has dropped four straight games and just came up short against Houston 17-14, losing outright as 5-point road favorites. This line opened with BYU listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public sees another easy BYU cover and 84% of spread bets are laying the points with the undefeated Cougars. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen BYU fall from -4.5 to -4. Some shops are even down to -3.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering BYU to begin with? Because pro money has come down on Utah plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home dog. Utah is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the week as the Utes are only receiving 16% of spread bets in a heavily bet late night game on ESPN (10:15 p.m. ET). Utah has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Utah also has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (40.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. Utah will lean on their defense to keep it close, as the Utes are allowing just 16.5 PPG compared to BYU giving up 19.6 PPG.

Georgia (-2.5, 55) at Mississippi

Georgia (7-1, ranked 2nd) has won four straight games and just brushed aside Florida 34-20 but failed to cover as 14.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Mississippi (7-2, ranked 16th) has won three of their last four games and just crushed Arkansas 63-31, easily covering as 8-point road favorites. The early opener for this game was Georgia listed as high as a 6.5-point road favorite. This line quickly got adjusted down to Georgia -3. The public thinks this line is way too low and 82% of spread bets are laying the points with the Bulldogs. However, despite receiving such heavy support we’ve seen Georgia fall from -3 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Ole Miss (particularly at the key number of +3), as the line has moved in favor of the Rebels despite being the unpopular play. Ole Miss is one of the top contrarian plays of the day, receiving only 18% of spread bets in a heavily bet late afternoon game on ABC (3:30 p.m. ET). Ole Miss has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. The Rebels are also a “dog who can score” system match (42 PPG), thereby keeping pace or back door covering. We’ve also seen a bit of a sharp under line freeze, as 69% of bets are taking the over the total has remained relatively stagnant, with some shops reaching 55.5 and falling back down to 55. Keep an eye on the weather, as the early forecast calls for mid 70s with 5-7 MPH winds and possibly some rain.

Iowa State (-3, 50.5) at Kansas

Iowa State (7-1, ranked 17th) just suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to Texas Tech 23-22 and losing outright as 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Kansas (2-6) just came up short against Kansas State 29-27 but covered as 9.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public can’t believe this line is so short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with Iowa State, who has the far better won-loss record and ranking. However, despite receiving 84% of spread bets we’ve seen Iowa State fall from -3.5 to -3. Some shops are even inching down further toward -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Kansas, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the highly unpopular side. Kansas is only receiving 16% of spread bets but 42% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in a heavily bet late afternoon game on FSI (3:30 p.m. ET). Kansas has buy-low value as a unranked conference dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. The Jayhawks also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage as they are coming off a bye and didn’t play last week while Iowa State played on Saturday. Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 51.5 to 50.5. The under is only receiving 34% of bets but a whopping 76% of dollars, a massive smart money under discrepancy. The forecast calls for high 50s with mostly cloudy skies and 10-12 MPH winds, which qualifies as a “windy under” system match. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade.

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