Week 10 of the College Football regular season is in the books and now bettors turn their attention to Week 11. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
| Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book OUT NOW >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up. |
|---|
Florida (-3.5, 43.5) at Kentucky
Florida (3-5) just hung tough with Georgia last week, losing 24-20 but covering as 7-point home dogs. On the other hand, Kentucky (3-5) just shocked Auburn 10-3, winning outright as 11.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Florida listed as a 3.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is a bit short and 73% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Gators on the road.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Florida remain at -3.5. In fact, most of the market is juicing up the Kentucky +3.5 (-120) while several other shops have fallen down to Kentucky +3.
This signals a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement in favor of Kentucky, as the line has either stayed the same or moved toward the Wildcats despite the public pounding the Gators.
At DraftKings, Kentucky is receiving only 27% of spread bets but 59% of spread dollars. At Circa, Kentucky is receiving 60% of spread bets and a whopping 90% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the home dog.
Kentucky has betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Home conference dogs are 73-61 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI this season and 185-155 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2024.
When two teams in the SEC face off in conference play, the dog getting 3-points or more is 53-35 ATS (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2024.
Kentucky has additional correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (43.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number.
Southern Miss (-4.5, 56.5) at Arkansas State
Southern Miss (6-2) just brushed aside UL Monroe 49-21, easily covering as 14-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Arkansas State (5-4) just upset Troy 23-10, winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Southern Miss listed as a 5.5-point road favorite.
The public is laying the points with Southern Miss, who has the better won-loss record.
However, despite receiving 58% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Southern Miss fall from -5.5 to -4.5.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already backing the Golden Eagles to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with the home dog plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of Arkansas State.
At Circa, Arkansas State is receiving 83% of spread bets and 94% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating heavy wiseguy support out in Vegas in favor of the Red Wolves.
When two teams from the Sun Belt face off, the home conference dog is 10-6 ATS (63%) with an 18% ROI this season.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 59 to 56.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 55% of bets but a whopping 98% of dollars, a massive sharp money discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game.
Nevada at Utah State (-9.5, 53.5)
Nevada (1-7) just fell to Boise State 24-3, pushing as 21-point home dogs. On the other hand, Utah State (4-4) just lost to New Mexico 33-14, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs.
This line opened with Utah State listed as an 11.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have gotten down hard on Nevada, dropping the Wolf Pack from +11.5 to +9.5.
This 2-point line move is especially notable considering the fact that this is one of the least heavily bet and most overlooked games of the week.
In other words, the public has little to no interest in this matchup. However, based on the line movement we can infer that pros have taken a keen interest and sided with the big dog plus the points.
At DraftKings, Nevada is taking in only 29% of spread bets, which makes the Wolf Pack an unpopular buy-low value play in a primetime game on CBS Sports Network (7:30 p.m. ET).
Despite Nevada’s poor won-loss record, the Wolf Pack have hung tough in their last two road games.
Nevada lost at New Mexico 24-22 but covered as 13.5-point road dogs and lost at Fresno State 20-17 but covered as 12-point road dogs.
Nevada has the edge defensively, allowing 29 points per game (ranking 91st) and 366.5 yards per game (ranking 64th). On the other hand, Utah State is allowing 35.3 points per game (ranking 121st) and giving up 444 yards per game (ranking 128th).
