Week 1 of the College Football season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 2. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Baylor at SMU (-3, 65.5)
Baylor (0-1) just fell to Auburn 38-24 in Week 1, failing to cover as 1-point home dogs. On the other hand, SMU (1-0, ranked 16th) just crushed East Texas A&M 42-13 but failed to cover as 50.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with SMU listed as a 4-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 73% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with SMU.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen SMU fall from -4 to -3, with some shops touching as low as -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Baylor, as the line has moved toward the Bears despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Baylor is receiving 27% of spread bets but a hefty 61% of spread dollars. At Circa, Baylor is taking in 81% of spread bets and a whopping 99% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the road dog.
Short road dogs +4 or less are 626-544 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2012.
Baylor has additional buy-low value as a team off a loss playing a team off a win, as well as an unranked road dog against a ranked opponent.
The Bears enjoy a one-day rest advantage, as Baylor played on Friday while SMU played on Saturday.
Pros have also quietly leaned over, raising the total up from 65 to 65.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 43% of bets but 78% of dollars, a massive sharp over split.
Iowa at Iowa State (-3, 41.5)
Iowa (1-0) brushed aside Albany 34-7 in Week 1 but failed to cover as 39.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Iowa State (2-0, ranked 22nd) just crushed South Dakota 55-7, easily covering as 16.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
The public is hammering the Cyclones at home, with 78% of spread bets at DraftKings laying the short chalk.
This lopsided betting drove Iowa State up from -2.5 to -3.5. However, once the hook was available we saw some wiseguy buyback on Iowa +3.5, dropping the line back down to Iowa State -3 where it rests now.
Iowa is one of the top contrarian plays of the week, as the Hawkeyes are only taking in 22% of spread bets in one of the most heavily bet, nationally televised noon games on Saturday.
Short road dogs +4 or less are 626-544 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2012.
Iowa has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (41.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. The Hawkeyes have additional buy-low value as a dog who didn’t cover the previous week against a sell-high favorite who did.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 42.5 to 41.5. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 48% of bets and 58% of dollars.
The early forecast calls or low 60s with partly cloudy skies and 7-10 MPH winds.
Michigan at Oklahoma (-5.5, 46.5)
Michigan (1-0, ranked 14th) just dismissed New Mexico 34-17 in Week 1 but failed to cover as 34.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Oklahoma (1-0, ranked 18th) just took down Illinois State 35-3 but failed to cover as 40.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Oklahoma listed as low as a 2.5-point home favorite.
Sharps seem to think this opener was way too short and have gotten down hard on Oklahoma, steaming the Sooners up from -2.5 to -5.5. Some books even reached as high as -6.5 before some Michigan buyback dropped the number back down to -5.5 where it stands now.
At DraftKings, the Sooners are receiving 46% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Sooners are receiving only 27% of spread bets but 68% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of Oklahoma.
The Sooners have heightened “bet against the public” and “fade the trendy dog” value as an unpopular favorite in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game.
When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 125-83 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2016.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 46.5 or even 46 at some shops. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 45% of bets but 75% of dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game.
The early forecast calls for mid 70s with partly cloudy skies and 8-10 MPH winds.
