Week 4 of the College Football regular season is here. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for several Saturday matchups using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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USC (-5.5, 46.5) at Michigan

USC (2-0, ranked 11th) just crushed Utah State 48-0, easily covering as 31-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Michigan (2-1, ranked 18th) just edged Arkansas State 28-18 but failed to cover as 22-point home favorites. This line opened with USC listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public expects an easy blowout win and cover for USC, who is undefeated and has a better ranking. However, despite receiving 83% of spread bets we’ve seen USC fall from -6.5 to -5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Michigan, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the unpopular side. Michigan is only receiving 17% of spread bets in one of the most heavily bet games of the day, providing notable contrarian value to take the Wolverines plus the points. Michigan has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (46.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number. We’ve also seen a sharp under line freeze, as 60% of bets are taking the over yet the total hasn’t budged. The under is only receiving 40% of bets but a whopping 82% of dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split.

Arizona State at Texas Tech (-3, 58.5)

Arizona State (3-0) is coming off a 31-28 win over Texas State, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. On the other hand, Texas Tech (2-1) just demolished North Texas 66-21, cruising as 11-point home favorites. This line opened with Texas Tech listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with Texas Tech at home. However, despite receiving 67% of spread bets we’ve seen the Red Raiders fall from -3.5 to -3. Why would the oddsmakers drop the number to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already betting Texas Tech to begin with? Because pro bettors jumped on Arizona State plus the hook, dropping the line in favor of the Sun Devils despite being the unpopular side. Short road dogs +4 or less are 13-5 ATS (72%) so far this season and 570-489 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2012. Arizona State enjoys a two-day “rest vs tired” advantage as the Sun Devils last played on Thursday while Texas Tech played on Saturday. Arizona State has the better defense, allowing 58 points this season while Texas Tech has given up 109, the most in the Big 12. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 60.5 to 58.5. The forecast calls for high 80s with 15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade.

Kansas State (-7, 48) at BYU

Kansas State (3-0, ranked 13th) just brushed aside Arizona 31-7, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Similarly, BYU (3-0) just took down Wyoming 34-14, covering as 9.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Kansas State listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Kansas State, who has the far better ranking. However, despite receiving 73% of spread bets we’ve seen Kansas State fall from -7.5 to -7. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on BYU, with pros backing the unpopular dog plus the points (specifically at +7.5). BYU is only receiving 27% of spread bets but 52% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in a heavily bet 10:30 p.m. ET matchup on ESPN. BYU has buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent. The Cougars also have correlative betting value as a touchdown dog in a low total game (48), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. Both teams are relatively equal in terms of points scored (K-State 106 vs BYU 93) and points allowed (K-State 40 vs BYU 42).

Arkansas at Auburn (-3.5, 58.5)

Arkansas (2-1) just outlasted UAB 37-27 but failed to cover as 23-point home favorites. On the flip side, Auburn (2-1) just took care of business against New Mexico 45-19, covering as 24.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Auburn listed as a 4-point home favorite. Sharps have jumped on Arkansas plus the points, dropping the Razorbacks from +4 to +3.5. Some books are even down to +3. Essentially, all movement and liability has come down in favor of Arkansas. The Razorbacks are receiving 58% of spread bets but 74% of spread dollars, indicating slight public support but also a heavy dose of smart money in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Short road dogs +4 or less are 13-5 ATS (72%) so far this season and 570-489 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2012. Arkansas has value as a conference dog, as both teams hail from the SEC. Historically, we’ve seen conference dogs bark louder than non-conference dogs due to the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. The Razorbacks have additional value as a “dog who can score,” thereby keeping pace or keeping alive the possibility of a backdoor cover. Arkansas has scored 138 points this season, the 5th most among 16 teams in the SEC. We’ve also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 57.5 to 58.5. The over is receiving 53% of bets but 67% of dollars, a notable wiseguy bet split.

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