Week 3 of the College Football regular season is in the books and now bettors turn their attention to Week 4. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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UNLV (-2.5, 48.5) at Miami Ohio
UNLV (3-0) just took down UCLA 30-23, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Miami Ohio (0-2) just got rolled by Rutgers 45-17, failing to cover as 15-point road dogs.
This line opened with UNLV listed as high as a 4.5-point road favorite.
The pubic thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with undefeated UNLV.
However, despite receiving 70% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen UNLV fall from -4.5 to -2.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering UNLV to begin with? Because respected pro action has come down on Miami Ohio plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home dog.
At DraftKings, Miami Ohio is receiving 30% of spread bets but a hefty 70% of spread dollars. At Circa, Miami Ohio is taking in 47% of spread bets but a notable 75% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the unpopular RedHawks plus the points.
When both teams are coming off a bye, as is the case here, the home team is 114-94 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2006.
Miami Ohio has buy-low value as winless dog against a sell-high undefeated favorite.
Those looking to follow the sharp Miami Ohio move would be wise to wait and hold out for the key number of +3, as most shops are juicing up UNLV -2.5 (-115), signaling a possible rise back up to 3.
Texas Tech at Utah (-3.5, 57.5)
Texas Tech (3-0, ranked 17th) just brushed aside Oregon State 45-14, covering as 24-point home favorites. Similarly, Utah (3-0, ranked 16th) just took down Wyoming 31-6, covering as 24.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Utah listed as a 4-point home favorite.
Sharps seem to be expecting a close game and have gotten down on Texas Tech plus the points, dropping Utah from -4 to -3.5. Most shops are juicing up Texas Tech +3.5 (-115 or -120) while a few others have even fallen down to Texas Tech +3. In other words, all movement and liability has been toward the Red Raiders plus the points.
At DraftKings, Texas Tech is receiving 59% of spread bets and 65% of spread dollars. At Circa, Texas Tech is taking in 60% of spread bets and 68% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road dog.
Short road dogs +4 or less are 632-551 ATS (53.4%) with a 3% ROI since 2012.
Texas Tech has additional betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
The Red Raiders are also a “dog who can score” system match, as they are averaging 53.5 PPG (2nd in College Football), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or back door cover. Utah is averaging 37 PPG, ranking 23rd.
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech (-3, 51)
Southern Miss (2-1) just upset Appalachian State 38-22, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech (2-1) just crushed New Mexico State 49-14, easily covering as 10-point home favorites.
This line opened with Louisiana Tech listed as low as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Despite being one of the lower bet and less popular games of the week, sharps have taken a keen interest on the home team, steaming Louisiana Tech up from -1.5 to -3. Even after this big line move, the market is still juicing up Louisiana Tech -3 (-115) with some shops even touching -3.5. From open to current, we’ve seen one way, under-the-radar wiseguy movement in favor of the home chalk.
At DraftKings, Louisiana Tech is taking in 68% of spread bets and 69% of spread dollars. At Circa, Louisiana Tech is receiving 64% of spread bets and 67% of spread dollars, further evidence of Pro and Joe action backing the home team.
Sharps have also looked to mitigate some risk and protect themselves from a three-point win that may not cover the number by taking Louisiana Tech on the moneyline at -155.
At Circa, the Bulldogs are receiving 50% of moneyline bets but a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy pro money out in the desert backing a Louisiana Tech straight up victory.
