Week 4 of the College Football regular season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 5. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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Georgia (-2, 48.5) at Alabama

Georgia (3-0, ranked 2nd) just edged Kentucky 13-12 but failed to cover as 21.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Alabama (3-0, ranked 4th) just crushed Wisconsin 42-10, easily covering as 14.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Georgia listed as high as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points with Georgia, who is ranked higher. However, despite receiving 56% of spread bets we’ve seen Georgia fall from -4.5 to -2. Some shops are even inching down to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Alabama, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the unpopular side. Alabama is receiving 44% of spread bets but 47% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Alabama offers notable contrarian value as they are receiving less than half the tickets in the most heavily bet game of the week which is also a 7:30 p.m. ET primetime showdown on national television. The Crimson Tide have additional value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Alabama is also a “dog who can score” system match, thereby putting up enough points to keep pace or backdoor cover. Alabama has scored 147 points this season compared to just 95 points for Georgia.

BYU at Baylor (-3, 45.5)

BYU (4-0, ranked 22nd) just took down Kansas State 38-9, winning outright as 7-point home dogs. On the other hand, Baylor (2-2) just fell to Colorado 38-31 in overtime, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Baylor listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public thinks “the wrong team is favored” and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with BYU. However, despite 75% of spread bets backing BYU we’ve actually seen this line remain stagnant at Baylor -3 or even inch up to Baylor -3.5. This indicates a sharp line freeze or even some reverse line movement on contrarian favorite Baylor, with pros fading trendy dog BYU and instead backing the fishy contrarian home favorite. Baylor is only receiving 25% of spread bets but 59% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Those looking to follow the sharp Baylor move but wary of laying a key number or hook could instead target the Bears on the moneyline at -160. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 52-24 (68%) straight up with a 9% ROI since 2017. Baylor is only receiving 17% of moneyline bets but 53% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pros backing the Bears to win straight up. The Bears are 0-2 on the road but 2-0 at home.

Oklahoma (-2.5, 45.5) at Auburn

Oklahoma (3-1, ranked 21st) just fell to Tennessee 25-15, failing to cover as 6-point home dogs. Similarly, Auburn (2-2) just lost to Arkansas 24-14, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public sees an easily win and cover with the Sooners laying a short spread. However, despite receiving a whopping 93% of spread bets we’ve seen Oklahoma fall from -3 to -2.5. Some shops are even down to -2. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on Auburn plus the points, as the line is moving in their favor despite being the incredibly unpopular side. Auburn is only receiving 7% of spread bets, making the Tigers the top “bet against the public” play of the week. Auburn has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent. Auburn has the superior offense, which could prove crucial to keeping pace and covering the number. Auburn has scored 146 points this season compared to Oklahoma scoring 116. Sharps are expecting a lower scoring game, as we’ve seen the total drop from 46.5 to 45.5. The under is only receiving 39% of bets but 86% of dollars, a massive sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. This is Oklahoma’s first road game of the season.

Arkansas vs Texas A&M (-4, 52.5)

This game will be played at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. Arkansas (3-1) just held off Auburn 24-14, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Texas A&M (3-1, ranked 24th) just beat Bowling Green 26-20 but failed to cover as 21-point home favorites. This line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 5.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points with Texas A&M who has a better ranking. However, despite receiving 54% of spread bets we’ve seen Texas A&M fall from -5.5 to -4. Some shops are even down to -3.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already leaning Aggies to begin with? Because pro money has sided with Arkansas plus the points, triggering sharp line movement in their favor. Arkansas is only receiving 46% of spread bets but 69% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Arkansas has buy-low value as an unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Arkansas also has betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Arkansas also has value as a “dog who can score” system match, scoring 162 points compared to 124 for Texas A&M. Sharps have quietly leaned over, raising the total from 51.5 to 52.5. The over is receiving 70% of bets but 92% of dollars, a sharp over bet discrepancy.

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