Week 4 of the College Football regular season is in the books and now bettors turn their attention to Week 5. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Notre Dame (-4, 64.5) at Arkansas
Notre Dame (1-2, ranked 22nd) just destroyed Purdue 56-30, covering as 24.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Arkansas (2-2) just came up short against Memphis 32-31, losing outright as 7.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Notre Dame listed as a 6-point road favorite.
The public is pounding the Irish, with 76% of spread bets at DraftKings laying the points with Notre Dame.
However, despite receiving heavy public support we’ve seen Notre Dame tumble from -6 to -4.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering the Irish to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with Arkansas plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular Razorbacks.
At DraftKings, Arkansas is taking in 24% of spread bets and 39% of spread dollars. At Circa, Arkansas is receiving 44% of spread bets and 67% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the home team plus the points.
Arkansas has buy-low value as an unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Unranked dogs are 136-116 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI against ranked teams since 2024.
Those looking to follow the sharp Razorbacks move would be wise to shop around for the hook, as some outlier books are still offering Arkansas +4.5 (-115 or -120) while most of the market is down to Arkansas +4.
Alabama at Georgia (-3, 52.5)
Alabama (2-1, ranked 17th) just took care of business against Wisconsin 38-14, covering as 18.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Georgia (3-0, ranked 5th) just eked by Tennessee 44-41 in overtime but failed to cover as 3.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Georgia listed as high as a 4.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 78% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Georgia at home.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Georgia fall from -4.5 to -3, with some books even touching Bulldogs -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Alabama plus the points, as the line has moved toward the Crimson Tide despite being the unpopular play.
Alabama is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of Week 5 as the Crimson Tide are only receiving 22% of spread bets in a heavily bet, primetime game (7:30 p.m. ET on ABC).
At Circa, Alabama is taking in 27% of spread bets but 47% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy out in Vegas in favor of the road dog.
Short road dogs +4 or less are 634-553 ATS (53%) with a 3% ROI since 2012.
Alabama has additional betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
When two SEC teams face off, the dog is 45-26 ATS (63%) with a 21% ROI since 2024.
LSU at Ole Miss (-1.5, 54.5)
LSU (4-0, ranked 4th) just crushed Southeast Louisiana 56-10 but failed to cover as 48.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Ole Miss (4-0, ranked 13th) just dominated Tulane 45-10, easily covering as 12.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with LSU listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public is all over LSU, who is the higher ranked team. However, despite LSU receiving 71% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen this line flip to Ole Miss -1.5 at home. This line even briefly touched as high as Ole Miss -2.5 before settling back down to Rebels -1.5.
In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of Ole Miss at home.
Ole Miss has rare buy-low value as a contrarian favorite in a heavily bet game, as the Rebels are only receiving 29% of spread bets at DraftKings.
Those looking to follow the sharp Ole Miss line move but also wary of a close win that may not cover the number could instead elect to play the Rebels on the moneyline at -115.
When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 173-43 (80%) straight up with a 10% ROI since 2016.
