Week 5 of the College Football regular season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 6. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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West Virginia at Oklahoma State (-3.5, 65.5)

West Virginia (2-2) is coming off a bye after upsetting Kansas 32-28 and covering as 1-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State (3-2) has dropped two straight and just got rolled by Kansas State 42-20, failing to cover as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with Oklahoma State listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public sees a bounce back spot for Oklahoma State and 66% of spread bets are laying the short chalk with the home favorite. However, despite being the popular play we’ve seen Oklahoma State fall from -5 to -3.5. Several shops are even juicing up West Virginia +3.5 (-115), signaling a possible evaporation of the hook and further fall to the key number of 3. West Virginia is only receiving 34% of spread bets but a whopping 75% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Short road dogs +4 or less are 580-500 (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2012. The Mountaineers enjoy a notable “rest vs tired” advantage as they are coming off a bye while the Cowboys played on Saturday. West Virginia is also a conference dog system match, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.

Michigan at Washington (-2.5, 41)

Michigan (4-1, ranked 10th) just held off Minnesota 27-24 but failed to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Washington (3-2) just fell to Rutgers 21-18, failing to cover as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with Washington listed as a 2-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. If Michigan has the better record and ranking, why are they an underdog? The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 84% of spread bets are backing the Wolverines. However, despite Michigan receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the line move further toward Washington -2 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Huskies, with pros fading the trendy dog Wolverines and instead backing the contrarian home favorite. Washington is one of the top contrarian plays of the week, receiving only 16% of spread bets in a nationally televised 7:30 p.m. ET game on NBC. Those looking to follow the sharp Washington move could protect themselves from a close game that may not cover the number by playing the Huskies on the moneyline at -135. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 52-26 (67%) straight up with a 7% ROI since 2017. Washington also enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Friday while Michigan played on Saturday and now must travel to the Pacific Northwest.

USC (-8.5, 51) at Minnesota

USC (3-1, ranked 11th) just took down Wisconsin 38-21, covering as 14-point home favorites. Conversely, Minnesota (2-3) just fell to Michigan 27-24 but covered as 10.5-point road dogs. This line opened with USC listed as an 8.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with USC and 76% of spread bets are laying the points with the Trojans. However, despite receiving this heavy dose of public support, the line hasn’t budged off USC -8.5. It has even dipped down to -8 at some shops. It has never risen up to -9. Reading between the lines, it appears as though Minnesota is receiving a sharp line freeze, as the line hasn’t moved despite heavy USC betting. This signals a reluctance on the part of the oddsmakers to adjust the number toward the popular side for fear of giving out an additional half point or more to contrarian Minnesota backers. The Gophers are only receiving 24% of spread bets but 33% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet against the public bet split. Minnesota has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 52 to 51. The under is receiving 53% of bets but 76% of dollars, further evidence of wiseguy money banking on a lower scoring game. The forecast calls for low 70s with partly cloudy skies and 10-12 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade.

Miami (-10, 54.5) at California

Miami (5-0, ranked 8th) just secured a thrilling 38-34 last-second victory over Virginia Tech but failed to cover as 17.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, California (3-1) is coming off a bye after falling to Florida State 14-9 in their last game, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Miami listed as a 12.5-point road favorite. The public isn’t scared off by the double digit spread and 85% of spread bets are laying the points with the Hurricanes. However, despite receiving a massive dose of public support we’ve seen Miami fall from -12.5 to -10. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Miami to begin with? Because pros have sided with California plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their direction. California is only receiving 15% of spread bets but 51% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in a heavily bet late night nationally televised game at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. California has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. The Golden Bears enjoy a pronounced “rest vs tired” advantage, as they are coming off a bye week while Miami played an emotional thriller against Virginia Tech on Saturday and now must travel cross country in a possible “letdown” spot.

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