Week 5 of the College Football regular season is in the books and now bettors turn their attention to Week 6. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of games using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Iowa State at Cincinnati (-1.5, 54.5)
Iowa State (5-0, ranked 14th) just brushed aside Arizona 39-14 last week, easily covering as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Cincinnati (3-1) just upset Kansas 37-34, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 2.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to back Iowa State, who is both undefeated and ranked.
However, despite 75% of spread bets backing Iowa State we’ve actually seen this line flip to Cincinnati -1.5 at home. This signals sharp
“dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of Cincinnati, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Cincinnati is receiving 25% of spread bets but 52% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of pros fading the trendy dog Cyclones and instead backing the unpopular Bearcats.
Those looking to follow the sharp Cincinnati move but also wary of laying points in what might be a close game could instead elect to play the Bearcats on the moneyline at -120.
At DraftKings, Cincinnati is taking in 16% of moneyline bets but 40% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian split in favor of a straight up victory for the home team.
Cincinnati has fishy buy-low value as an unranked team against a sell-high ranked opponent.
Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 54-28 (66%) straight up with a 6% ROI since 2017.
Miami (-4.5, 54.5) at Florida State
Miami (4-0, ranked 3rd) just dismissed Florida 26-7, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Florida State (3-1, ranked 18th) just fell to Virginia 46-38 in double overtime, losing outright as 7-point road favorites.
This line opened with Miami listed as high as a 7-point road favorite.
The public is happy to back the undefeated Hurricanes and 69% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Miami.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Miami fall from -7 to -4.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering the Hurricanes to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with the home dog plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of Florida State.
Florida State is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the week as the Seminoles are only receiving 31% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game (7:30 p.m. ET on ABC).
At Circa, Florida State is receiving 44% of spread bets but a whopping 75% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the Vegas pro wagers taking the points with the home dog.
Florida State has additional buy-low value as a team off a straight up loss who failed to cover against a sell-high undefeated team off a win who did cover.
The Seminoles are also a conference dog system match, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Vanderbilt at Alabama (-10.5, 56.5)
Vanderbilt (5-0, ranked 16th) just took down Utah State 55-35 but failed to cover as 23.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Alabama (3-1, ranked 10th) just upset Georgia 24-21, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Alabama listed as high as a 13-point home favorite.
Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit high and have gotten down hard on Vanderbilt plus the points, dropping the Commodores from +13 to +10.5.
At DraftKings, Vanderbilt is receiving 66% of spread bets and 81% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split indicating both public and sharp support in their favor.
Vanderbilt has betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
When two SEC teams face off in a conference game, the dog is 7-5 ATS (58%) this season and 48-28 ATS (63%) with a 20% ROI since 2024. If the SEC conference dog is getting 10-points or more, they improve to 25-6 ATS (81%) with a 54% ROI since 2024.
Vanderbilt is also a “dog who can score” system match, thereby increasing the chances they can cover by keeping pace or backdoor covering.
The Commodores are averaging 50 PPG this season, 1st overall in College Football.
