Week 6 of the College Football regular season is in the books and now bettors turn their attention to Week 7. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of games using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Michigan at USC (-2.5, 57.5)
Michigan (4-1, ranked 15th) just brushed aside Wisconsin 24-10 but failed to cover as 17-point home favorites. On the other hand, USC (4-1) just came up short against Illinois 34-32, losing outright as 6.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with USC listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home field advantage, why is an unranked team coming off a loss favored over a ranked team coming off a win?
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 55% of spread bets are taking the points with Michigan.
However, despite a majority of tickets backing Michigan we’ve actually seen this line move further toward USC -1.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on USC, as the line has moved toward the Trojans despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, USC is receiving 45% of spread bets but 67% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk.
USC enjoys a rest advantage, as the Trojans were off last week while Michigan played Wisconsin.
Those looking to follow the sharp move but also gain some added protection in what might be a close game could instead target USC on the moneyline at -135.
At DraftKings, USC is taking in 23% of moneyline bets and 39% of moneyline dollars.
Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 2-1 (67%) straight up this season and 55-29 (65%) straight up with a 5% ROI since 2017.
Alabama (-3, 51.5) at Missouri
Alabama (4-1, ranked 8th) just took care of business against Vanderbilt 30-14, covering as 12.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Missouri (5-0, ranked 14th) just dominated UMass 42-6 but failed to cover as 44.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Alabama listed as high as a 6.5-point road favorite.
The public sees an easy Alabama win and cover and 77% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Crimson Tide.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Alabama fall from -6.5 to -3.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line so significantly to hand out a better number to the public when they’re already hammering Alabama to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with Missouri plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home dog.
Missouri is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the week as the Tigers are only receiving 23% of spread bets in one of the most heavily bet early noon games.
The Tigers enjoy a rest advantage, as Missouri was off last week while Alabama played Vanderbilt.
Home conference dogs, like Missouri here, are 31-23 ATS (57%) this season and 143-117 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2024.
SEC conference dogs are 49-31 ATS (61%) with a 17% ROI since 2024.
Indiana at Oregon (-7.5, 55.5)
Indiana (5-0, ranked 7th) just held off Iowa 20-15 but failed to cover as 9.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Oregon (5-0, ranked 3rd) just upset Penn State 30-24, winning outright as 4-point road dogs.
This line opened with Oregon listed as high as a 9.5-point home favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big chalk and 63% of spread bets at DraftKings and laying the points with Oregon at home.
However, despite receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen the Ducks fall from -9.5 to -7.5. In addition, most of the market is juicing up Indiana +7.5 (-115), signaling a possible further tumble down to 7. This indicates sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Hoosiers plus the points, as the line has moved in favor of Indiana even though the public is backing Oregon.
Indiana has notable “bet against the public” value, as the Hoosiers are taking in less than 40% of spread bets in the most heavily bet late afternoon game on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET).
At DraftKings, Indiana is taking in 37% of spread bets and 52% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Hoosiers are receiving 36% of spread bets and 63% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the road dog.
Indiana has betting system value as a “dog who can score” system match (41.5 PPG, 7th best in College Football), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or backdoor cover.
