Week 7 of the College Football regular season is in the books and now bettors turn their attention to Week 8. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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LSU at Vanderbilt (-2.5, 48.5)
LSU (5-1, ranked 10th) just held off South Carolina 20-10, covering as 8.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Vanderbilt (5-1, ranked 17th) just fell to Alabama 30-14, failing to cover as 12.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Vanderbilt listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks “the wrong team is favored” and 57% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with LSU, who has a higher ranking.
However, despite LSU receiving a majority of tickets we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Vanderbilt -1.5 to -2.5.
Why would the oddsmakers hand out a better number to public LSU bettors when they’re already taking the points to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with the home team, triggering wiseguy “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of Vanderbilt.
At DraftKings, Vanderbilt is receiving 43% of spread bets and 54% of spread dollars. At Circa, Vanderbilt is taking in 63% of spread bets and 74% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Those looking to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game could elect to target Vanderbilt on the moneyline at -130.
When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is 175-46 (79%) straight up with a 9% ROI since 2016.
Vanderbilt also enjoys a rest advantage, as the Commodores were off last week while LSU played a tough SEC game against South Carolina.
Washington at Michigan (-6, 50.5)
Washington (5-1) just brushed aside Rutgers 38-19, easily covering as 9.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Michigan (4-2) just got rolled by USC 31-13, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs.
This line opened with Michigan listed as a 6.5-point home favorite.
Sharps seem to have thought this opener was a bit high and have gotten down on Washington plus the points, dropping the Huskies from +6.5 to +6, with some shops even down to +5.5.
At DraftKings, Washington is receiving 59% of spread bets and 78% of spread dollars. At Circa, Washington is taking in 47% of spread bets and 62% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road dog plus the points.
When two teams from the Big Ten face off in conference play, the dog is 17-10 ATS (63%) with a 19% ROI this season. Big Ten road conference dogs are 10-4 ATS (71%) with a 33% ROI. Big Ten conference dogs getting 5-points or more are 15-7 ATS (68%) with a 28% ROI.
Washington has additional betting system value as a “dog who can score” system match (33 PPG), which increases the chances they can keep pace or backdoor cover.
The Huskies enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on October 10th compared to the Wolverines last playing on October 11th.
Those looking to back Washington would be wise to shop around, as ESPN Bet is currently offering Huskies +6.5 (-120) while the rest of the market sits at +6 or +5.5.
Penn State at Iowa (-3, 39.5)
Penn State (3-3) just fell to Northwestern 22-21, losing outright as 20.5-point home favorites. Conversely, Iowa (4-2) just demolished Wisconsin 37-0, easily covering as 5.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Iowa listed as a 3-point home favorite.
The public is rushing to the window to fade Penn State, who has lost three straight, just fired their head coach James Franklin and just lost their starting quarterback Drew Allar to a season-ending injury.
However, despite 68% of spread bets backing Iowa we’ve seen the Hawkeyes remain stagnant at -3. In fact, most of the market is juicing up Penn State +3 (-115). This signals a sharp line freeze on the Nittany Lions, as the line hasn’t budged despite the pubic pounding Iowa.
Penn State is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the week as the Nittany Lions are only receiving 32% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet primetime game (7 p.m. ET).
At Circa, Penn State is taking in 44% of spread bets but 67% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the Vegas wiseguys backing the road dog plus the points.
Penn State is in the ultimate buy-low spot as a “bad news” unpopular dog on a losing streak against a popular favorite coming off a blowout win and cover.
The Nittany Lions have additional correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (39.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number.
Penn State is also a buy-low “bounce back” candidate, as teams have historically enjoyed an immediate bump in the first game after firing their head coach.
