Week 8 of the College Football regular season is in the books and now bettors turn their attention to Week 9. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book OUT NOW >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
BYU at Iowa State (-2.5, 49)
BYU (7-0, ranked 11th) just upset Utah 24-21, winning outright as 4.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Iowa State (5-2) just fell to Colorado 24-17, losing outright as 3-point road favorites.
This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home field advantage, why is an unranked team favored over an undefeated ranked team?
The public says “the wrong team is favored” and 61% of spread bets are taking BYU plus the points.
However, despite the public backing BYU we’ve actually seen the line move further toward Iowa State -1.5 to -2.5. In addition, most shops are juicing up Iowa State -2.5 (-115 or -120) and a few others are touching -3.
This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of Iowa State, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Iowa State is receiving 39% of spread bets but a whopping 87% of spread dollars. At Circa, Iowa State is taking in 62% of spread bets and 82% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Those looking to follow the sharp move but also gain some added protection in the event of a close game could elect to target the Cyclones on the moneyline at -150.
At DraftKings, Iowa State is receiving 20% of moneyline bets but 65% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pro money backing a straight up Cyclones win.
Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 57-31 (65%) straight up with a 4% ROI since 2017.
Iowa State also enjoys a rest advantage as the Cyclones are coming off a bye while BYU just played a touch conference game against rival Utah.
Ole Miss at Oklahoma (-5.5, 54.5)
Ole Miss (6-1, ranked 8th) just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to Georgia 43-35 and failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Oklahoma (6-1, ranked 13th) just brushed aside South Carolina 26-7, easily covering as 4.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 4.5-point home favorite.
This public thinks this line is way too high and 77% of spread bets are taking the points with Ole Miss, who has the higher ranking.
However, despite the public pounding the Rebels we’ve actually seen this line tick up further in favor of Oklahoma -4.5 to -5.5.
Why would the oddsmakers hand out a better number to the public when they’re already hammering the Rebels to begin with? Because respected smart money has laid the points with the Sooners, triggering sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the home team.
Oklahoma is on the top “bet against the public” plays of the week as they are receiving less than one-quarter of tickets in one of the most heavily bet games of the day.
At DraftKings, the Sooners are taking in 23% of spread bets but 44% of spread dollars. At Circa, Oklahoma is receiving 36% of spread bets but a hefty 83% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a massive wiseguy bet discrepancy in favor of the unpopular home chalk.
When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 10-7 ATS (59%) this season and 134-89 ATS (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2016.
Oklahoma has a big edge defensively, allowing only 10.5 PPG (2nd best in CFB) compared to Ole Miss giving up 22.6 PPG (43rd).
Those looking to fade the trendy dog and back Oklahoma would be wise to shop around, as ESPN Bet is currently offering Sooners -4.5 (-115) while the rest of the market sits at Sooners -5 or -5.5.
Baylor at Cincinnati (-4.5, 67.5)
Baylor (4-3) just came up short against TCU 42-36, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Cincinnati (6-1, ranked 21st) just crushed Oklahoma State 49-17, covering as 23.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 5.5-point home favorite.
The public is happy to lay the points with the Bearcats, who have the far better won-loss record and ranking.
However, despite receiving 80% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Cincinnati fall from -5.5 to -4.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Baylor plus the points, as the line has moved in favor of the Bears despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Baylor is receiving 20% of spread bets but 58% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepanvy.
Baylor has buy-low value as an unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Unranked dogs vs ranked opponents are 54-46 ATS (54%) this season and 162-137 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2024.
Baylor has additional betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
The Bears are also a “dog who can score” system match (35.3 PPG), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or backdoor cover.
