NFL best bets and predictions Week 15
When there is money on the line, no game is meaningless. Some critics will bash the bowl season as mostly pointless and point to numerous unattractive matchups on the schedule, and there is some truth to that argument. But in the betting world, who cares?
More games mean more wagering opportunities, and that’s good for the bettors and bookmakers. So put on those ugly shoes and go bowling with no apologies.
I have several plays for the bowls but only a couple for the opening weekend. The plays in this column went 43-37-3 ATS in the regular season, which is OK considering I started the season 1-9, briefly contemplated retirement, bounced back and went 42-28-3 the rest of the way. So here are two best bets for Saturday:
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. New Mexico State Aggies (-3.5, 51.5)
New Mexico Bowl
Something was wrong with Fresno State long before coach Jeff Tedford stepped aside because of health issues. Tedford will not coach the team in the bowl, and he will be missed.
The Bulldogs stumbled down the stretch in November by losing to San Jose State, New Mexico and San Diego State, turning a promising 8-1 season into 8-4 and a disappointing trip to Albuquerque. Injuries to quarterback Mikey Keene played a role in Fresno’s demise, and Keene is expected to return for this game.
New Mexico State has lost at least eight players to the transfer portal, but the losses should make a minimal impact. The return of quarterback Diego Pavia from a shoulder injury is what matters most. Pavia, the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year, accounted for 32 touchdowns while passing for 2,915 yards and rushing for 851 yards. Pavia led the Aggies, 25-point underdogs, to a 31-10 win at Auburn on Nov. 18.
While it’s fair to question the Bulldogs’ motivation for this game, the Aggies (10-4) are certainly excited about it and will have most of the 30,000-plus fans expected to be in attendance. Jerry Kill coached New Mexico State to a 24-19 victory over Bowling Green in last year’s Quick Lane Bowl. With Tedford out, Kill’s coaching edge could make the difference. DraftKings opened the Aggies -1, and the current price is no bargain, but I still prefer the favorite.
Pick: New Mexico State (-170 moneyline)
Boise State Broncos vs. UCLA Bruins (-5.5, 48)
LA Bowl
At the end of his sixth season as UCLA coach, Chip Kelly is still seeking his first bowl win. Kelly has made it clear this bowl is not an audition for young players, and he’s coaching to win the game. The betting market favors the Bruins, who opened -2.5 and are now as high as -6 at Circa Sports.
UCLA, which took a 33-7 loss to Cal in its final Pac-12 game, is dealing with some setbacks. Defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn left for the same job at USC, and edge rusher Laiatu Latu, a first-round NFL prospect, has opted out. Kelly, who has lost two other coaches, could be without injured leading rusher Carson Steele.
Ethan Garbers is no star, but UCLA has the quarterback advantage anyway. Boise State true freshman CJ Tiller replaces Taylen Green, who transferred to Arkansas, and Maddux Madsen, who’s injured. Tiller has taken two snaps this season, and his first pass attempt against the Bruins will be the first of his college career. The Broncos will try to ride running backs Ashton Jeanty and George Holani against a UCLA run defense that ranks No. 2 in the nation (69.9 yards per game).
Boise rallied to win the Mountain West after Andy Avalos was fired as coach and defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson was named interim coach. Avalos was disliked by most of the players, Danielson has the full-time job now, and the Broncos are playing hard for him. The quarterback situation could be a big problem for Boise, so this should be a low-scoring game that stays mostly on the ground.
Pick: Boise State +5.5 and Under 48 (half-unit each)
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