East Carolina Pirates:
The seat under Mike Houston is warm as East Carolina begins the 2024 season. After having success at Lenoir-Rhyne, The Citadel, and James Madison, Houston has taken ECU to a couple of bowl games, but hasn’t finished higher than third in the AAC. The conference keeps improving around him, but the Pirates just had a 2-10 season, their worst since 2004 when they finished 2-9.
The athletic department invested in the program this season. Higher-profile assistant coaches and two Power Five QB transfers have the chance to turn things around for the Pirates, who badly need to inject some life into the team and the fan base.
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Offense
All in all, the defense was quite good last season, but the offense was terrible. For a team generally known for having an above average offense, last season’s 132nd finish in yards per play with 4.3 was a major departure from the past. ECU was one of four teams with fewer than 2,000 passing and rushing yards. The others were Kent State, Eastern Michigan, and Iowa.
Missouri backup and part-time Miami starter Jake Garcia and Michigan State’s Katin Houser are in the battle for starting QB reps. It’s hard to believe that ECU is just a year removed from having Holton Ahlers’ 28 TD passes and 3,708 passing yards. It’s even harder to believe that Keaton Mitchell ran for 1,452 yards in 2022 and the team ran for 1,360 in 2023. New OC John David Baker should have this group closer to 2022 levels, but not all the way there.
Defense
If the offense does make some big strides, then ECU is going to be a surprise team in the AAC. With virtually no help from the other side of the ball, the Pirates defense finished 41st in yards per play against, 38th in scoring defense, and did so with only 18 sacks and 16 takeaways. The defense was fortunate to recover 10 fumbles, as their six interceptions were among the fewest in FBS.
With five Power Five transfers injected into Blake Harrell’s defense, we may not see that big of a drop-off, if any. As mentioned, offensive upgrades could make the defense even stronger.
Outlook
I like this East Carolina team and the schedule is very kind. They do get Liberty and App State in non-conference, but avoid Memphis, Tulane, and South Florida. My numbers put ECU at 6.45 wins and the market is juiced on Over 6 wins, which I agree with. There are a lot of spreads under a touchdown for this team, so there is a lot of potential variance in their record, but the talent and coaching have improved.
Pick: Over 6 Wins
