College Football Week 11 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
After taking a week off to refresh my mind and data a few weeks ago, I put together 12-5 ATS, 12-6 ATS, and 11-9 ATS weeks with my best bets columns. Fortunately, this is helping me forget about my recent NFL troubles. Overall, it’s been a solid past month for my college football stuff, and my Effective Play-by-play lines (54.7% ATS the last five weeks) are doing very well. As we head into Week 11 of the college football season, my best bets mark is now 88-77-1 ATS (53.3%), despite a particularly bad 5-14 result from Week 6.
This week’s slate isn’t as “star-studded” as last week’s in terms of top-tier matchups, but there are a handful of ranked vs. ranked games, as well as several others that have a chance to upend the most recent CFP rankings, as controversial as they are. Those ranked matchups have grown in my best bets column since I expanded the ranked game systems recently, so I expect at least a couple on my board below. You might have noticed that this week’s board is the BIGGEST of the season, 67 games between FBS opponents. As such, my list of opinions grew as well, to 25. To save time while still explaining why I like specific games, I tweaked the format of this week’s column. Thus, after pouring through another solid VSiN College Football Analytics Report, these are the games that caught my eye for Week 11.
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
(107) MASSACHUSETTS at (108) TOLEDO
Effective Play-by play projection:
Actual Home Line: TOLEDO: -14.5
EYPP Home Line: TOLEDO: -16.2
Difference: 1.7, Favors – TOLEDO
My power ratings show Toledo should be favored by 17.3
Steve’s take: Tough travel spot here for UMass, whose season seems to have hit a wall. Toledo is still in the running for a spot in the MAC title game and comes off a sloppy road effort last week at Sacramento State. I expect a much better go-around this time, especially without a big public backing at DraftKings.
Steve’s Best Bet: Toledo -14.5
(111) SACRAMENTO ST at (112) C MICHIGAN
Solid MAC system for Wednesday night:
Favorites in the -16.5 to -30.5 line range on Tues/Wed Night MACtion are 22-7 (75.9%) ATS since 2015
System Match (PLAY): CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-17.5)
My Effective Strength Averages call for Sacramento State to score only about 13 here.
Steve’s take: A midweek trek across the country for Sacramento State, making this one of the more difficult road trips for any team this season. When laying big points, you want to be sure the team favored has proven capable of winning big, and CMU won by 28 last week over Eastern Michigan and 24 points over Akron earlier. This game also shows only about a 60/40 money split at DK, somewhat small for a big favorite.
Steve’s Best Bet: Central Michigan -17.5
Thursday, November 12, 2026
(117) LA LAFAYETTE at (118) LA MONROE
Effective Play-by play projection:
Actual Home Line: LA MONROE: +10.5
EYPP Home Line: LA MONROE: +13.8
Difference: 3.3, Favors – LA LAFAYETTE
Huge Head-to-head trend in this series:
Road teams have been the play historically in the Battle on the Bayou, going 14-9 SU and 20-3 ATS since 2003
Strong Conference play System against ULM:
Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3 points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 33-52 ATS (38.8%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): LA MONROE (+10.5 vs LA Lafayette)
DraftKings splits show 24% more handle on ULL than bets
Steve’s take: ULM has won two of its last three games, both on the road, and, like this head-to-head series, has enjoyed no home-field advantage. The Warhawks are 0-4 SU and ATS as hosts this season while being outscored 142-73. My power ratings say the game is underpriced by 1.7 points, and my bettors ratings indicate the market believes ULL should be -15.
Steve’s Best Bet: Louisiana -10.5
Friday, November 13, 2026
(121) ILLINOIS at (122) UCLA
Effective Play-by play projection:
Actual Home Line: UCLA: -10
EYPP Home Line: UCLA: -15.1
Difference: 5.1, Favors – UCLA
Key trend: UCLA is a perfect 9-0 SU & ATS this season
Steve’s take: Time to get back on the train here, and several of you might remember that I was very high on UCLA out of the gate, riding the Bruins for their first five wins. I jumped off after the QB Iamaleava injury, but head coach Bob Chesney’s team hasn’t missed a beat. They have a big defensive edge in this one over Illinois, having held four of five home opponents to 10 points or fewer. The Illini have won four straight games but barely got by at Maryland and Michigan State. This is a different animal.
Steve’s Best Bet: UCLA -10
Saturday, November 14, 2026
(133) NORTHWESTERN at (134) OHIO STATE
Effective Play-by play projection:
Actual Home Line: OHIO STATE: -12.5
EYPP Home Line: OHIO STATE: -17
Difference: 4.5, Favors – OHIO STATE
Strong bounce back system on Ohio State:
CFB Ranked Team System #12: Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 70-32 SU and 59-42-1 ATS (58.4%) in the next game since November of 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OHIO STATE (-12.5)
My power ratings show Ohio State should be -15.8
Steve’s take: Bettors have flocked to fade Ohio State here despite the fact that Northwestern has also cooled of late. The Wildcats’ impressive start is being questioned now that we see the teams they have beaten aren’t really strong enough for the resume. They are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS against the really good defenses they have faced so far, and OSU might be the best of that bunch. Let’s not overlook that the Buckeyes dominated Oregon for almost the entire first half before a fake punt changed the momentum, the game, and perhaps the season. However, the CFP standings revealed that head coach Ryan Day’s team is by no means eliminated.
Steve’s Best Bet: Ohio State -12.5
(139) MINNESOTA at (140) PENN STATE
Effective Play-by play projection:
Actual Home Line: PENN STATE: -9.5
EYPP Home Line: PENN STATE: -17.8
Difference: 8.3, Favors – PENN STATE
Strong fade system against Minnesota based upon tough schedule:
CFB Ranked Team System #9: Teams coming off a loss at home to a top 10 ranked team are just 147-153 SU and 134-164-2 ATS (45%) in the next game since October of ’16.
System Matches (FADE): MINNESOTA (+9.5)
Key betting splits data: Heavy money (86%) and bets (84%) at DK backing Minnesota here.
Key head-to-head trend: Home teams are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine; last game at Penn State in 2022 was a 45-17 decision
My Power Ratings, Effective Strength Ratings, and Effective Yards Per Play Ratings all show that this game should be a double-digit line
Steve’s take: Minnesota’s lack of offense is becoming a concern as it seems to be facing tough defenses each and every week. The Gophers haven’t topped the 20-point mark in any of their last five games and will be hard-pressed to do so this week against a Penn State team that seems to be finding a groove again. It’s been a tale of three different seasons so far for head coach Matt Campbell’s first Nittany Lions team.
Steve’s Best Bet: Penn State -9.5
(143) DUKE at (144) MIAMI (FL)
Great betting system based upon Duke’s recent defensive dominance:
CFB Streaks Betting System #3: Teams that have won back-to-back conference games both SU and ATS while being defensively dominant (<12 PPG allowed in those two games), have been tremendous when playing on the road in the next game, 64-35 ATS (64.6%) since 2019.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DUKE (+13.5)
Potential letdown angle going against Miami after last week’s 31-24 loss at Notre Dame:
CFB Ranked Team System #10: Ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 128-31 SU but just 66-89-4 ATS (42.6%) since December of 2015.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (FL) (-13.5)
Key Trend: MIAMI (FL) is 7-14 ATS (33.3%) as a home favorite in Conference games since 2020
Steve’s take: Duke has allowed 21 points in its last three games, and not against completely weak competition. Miami’s offense was shaky versus Notre Dame, clearly missing weapon Malachi Toney. With the Blue Devils playing very well right now, and Toney still out, my power ratings say this one is overpriced by 1.5 points, lending value to head coach Manny Diaz’s new team against his former club.
Steve’s Best Bet: Duke +13.5
(145) GEORGIA SOUTHERN at (146) GEORGIA STATE
Solid head-to-head trend showing the better team wins in this series:
* Favorites are on 7-1 SU and ATS surge in the GASO-GAST rivalry
Key trend: * GEORGIA STATE is 9-18 (33.3%) ATS in home games since 2022
Georgia Southern’s recent defensive dominance has it in a good position:
CFB Streaks Betting System #3: Teams that have won back-to-back conference games both SU and ATS while being defensively dominant (<12 PPG allowed in those two games), have been tremendous when playing on the road in the next game, 64-35 ATS (64.6%) since 2019.
System Matches (PLAY): GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-5.5)
Key Sun Belt road chalk angle:
* Sun Belt road favorites in the -3.5 to -10 line range are 75-30 SU and 64-41 ATS (61%) in conference play since 2015
System Match (PLAY): GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-5.5)
Steve’s take: Georgia Southern is hot and playing like one of, if not the best team in the Sun Belt right now. Georgia State has lost three of its last four games overall and hasn’t been very good at home for several years. The Eagles have also put up 41 PPG in their last three contests versus the Panthers.
Steve’s Best Bet: Georgia Southern -5.5
(147) APPALACHIAN STATE at (148) MARSHALL
Effective Play-by play projection:
Actual Home Line: MARSHALL: +1.5
EYPP Home Line: MARSHALL: +7.8
Difference: 6.3, Favors – APPALACHIAN STATE
Key system against Marshall after 49-13 loss to Georgia Southern:
* Teams playing in a home conference game after losing and yielding 48+ points to another conference rival the previous game are just 79-109 ATS (42%) since 2020.
System Matches (FADE): MARSHALL (+1.5)
My Effective Strength Ratings show Appalachian State should be favored by 6.7 points
Steve’s take: Both teams are 5-4, and Appalachian State has been playing with its backup QB for several weeks now. Why have oddsmakers made the Mountaineers the favorites here? Looks like they realize that ASU is the better team in this matchup, yet 97% of the money is going toward Marshall as of Wednesday afternoon. Uh oh.
Steve’s Best Bet: Appalachian State -1.5
(149) EAST CAROLINA at (150) CHARLOTTE
Key Trend: * CHARLOTTE is 6-23 (20.7%) ATS in their last 29 home games
AAC mid-range favorites have been great bets:
* AAC FAVORITES in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 124-20 SU and 79-59-6 ATS (57.2%) in conference play since 2015
System Match (PLAY): EAST CAROLINA (-11.5)
Steve’s take: As usual, Charlotte has played its worst football at home again this season, following a pattern shown in the trend above. The 49ers have yet to win at home in five tries, getting outscored 174-87. East Carolina has put together back-to-back wins and three straight covers, nearly missing the significant defensive surge system listed a couple of times already by allowing 26 points the last two weeks, rather than 24. The Pirates still hold some hope for a AAC title game berth with games versus teams higher than them in the standings still remaining. With big money on Charlotte (86% handle at DK), and the line not moving, I’ll go the other way.
Steve’s Best Bet: East Carolina -11.5
(151) LOUISVILLE at (152) NORTH CAROLINA
Effective Play-by play projection:
Actual Home Line: NORTH CAROLINA: +3.5
EYPP Home Line: NORTH CAROLINA: +13.3
Difference: 9.8, Favors – LOUISVILLE
Key stat: My effective yards per play offensive stats show Louisville as the #1 team in the country at 9.2 YPP
Steve’s take: In all honesty, my power ratings show that this game is priced exactly where it should be, -3.5. However, my effective offensive numbers indicate that this is a mismatch when comparing the teams’ offensive units. Can head coach Bill Belichick’s team slow the game down and make it an ugly one? Well, Louisville has topped the 40-point mark five times and hasn’t been held below 27 by anyone, including Wake Forest, SMU, and Ole Miss. UNC has been better offensively of late, but can it keep up here? With just 45% of the bets at DK on the Cardinals, but 64% of the handle, I think the sharps are on head coach Jeff Brohm’s team here.
Steve’s Best Bet: Louisville -3.5
(153) TROY at (154) SOUTH ALABAMA
Two key Under systems for this contest:
1) Sun Belt small home favorites/pick ’ems in the PK to -5.5 line range and totals within the 52.5-65 range have had these totals go Under at a 45-21 (68.2%) rate in conference play since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TROY-SOUTH ALABAMA (spread USA -3, o/u at 55.5)
2) Teams playing as road underdogs in conference play after a game in which they turned the ball over 4+ times have been huge Under plays on totals, 134-89 (60%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): TROY-SOUTH ALABAMA (o/u at 55.5)
Steve’s take: A battle of wills here at South Alabama as the Jaguars want to pick up the pace while Troy hopes to keep it at a manageable slower pace. Even still, USA has gone Under in its last three, with its offense slowing to 19.7 PPG in that stretch. Troy has gone Under the total in seven of nine games and has held four strong offensive teams to 25.5 PPG on the road. The Trojans are also usually a very competitive road team in general.
Steve’s Best Bet: UNDER 55.5 in Troy-South Alabama
(163) WASHINGTON at (164) MICHIGAN STATE
Effective Play-by play projection:
Actual Home Line: MICHIGAN STATE +3.5
EYPP Home Line: MICHIGAN STATE +3.7
Difference: 0.2, Favors – WASHINGTON
Key Trend: MICHIGAN STATE is on a 1-14 ATS skid in conference play when coming off an upset win
Solid recent Big 10 road favorite angle:
* Big 10 road favorites of -4 or less have gone 33-13 SU and 29-16-1 ATS (64.4%) in conference play since 2021
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-3.5)
Steve’s take: This would be a very difficult letdown spot for any team, having just beaten its “big brother” arch rival the week prior. In this case though, things are even worse for the Spartans, since the program has not handled such upset victories well recently. Can that change under new head coach Pat Fitzgerald, starting this week? It could, but Washington is also changing its recent trends significantly in 2026, now playing its best ball on the road. The Huskies have won back-to-back games on the Big Ten road while covering three straight.
Steve’s Best Bet: Washington -3.5
For more Week 11 college football best bets, visit the Week 11 College Football Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
