Week 11 of the 2024 college football season is here and our VSiN team is attacking it relentlessly. If you haven’t already, make sure you check out the Week 11 CFB Betting Hub for write-ups and picks from all of our talented analysts. However, keep reading for my college football best bets and predictions for this exciting Week 11 slate. I’ll probably add some picks as lines move and more information comes out later in the week — and on game day. If I do, I’ll put them on the VSiN Pro Picks page. Don’t miss out on those.

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Iowa State at Kansas – 3:30 pm ET

This has been a miserable season for Kansas. However, the team did put up a real fight in a 29-27 loss against a good Kansas State team last game. The Jayhawks have now covered in back-to-back games, and they’re also coming off a bye week. In Lance Leipold’s coaching career, his teams are 9-5 both straight-up and against the spread when coming off a bye. That includes 4-1 SU and ATS records at Kansas.

The Cyclones have also failed to cover in each of their last two, and Iowa State is coming off a home loss as a 13.5-point favorite against Texas Tech. So, these are teams that are kind of heading in opposite directions right now.

One thing that should be a little concerning for Iowa State here is the defense. While the Cyclones are 15th in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.098), they gave up 354 rushing yards against UCF two games ago. Then, Iowa State struggled a bit in key situations against Texas Tech last game. Well, this Kansas offense hasn’t looked the same without Andy Kotelnicki, who is now the offensive coordinator at Penn State. But quarterback Jalon Daniels is an electric dual-threat quarterback, and he’ll be a load for the Cyclones to handle after an extra week of practice. The scripted stuff early on should really work for Kansas, and Daniels’ ability to make plays with his legs will be a factor late.

It’s also hard to be too worried about how Kansas’ defense will play here. This Jayhawks defense has not been great this season, but it has been solid. That should be enough to slow down an Iowa State team that isn’t all that explosive. The Cyclones have scored 22 or fewer points four times this season.

Kansas has also won two games in a row against Iowa State. So, Leipold has enjoyed facing Matt Campbell’s team. And while this year’s Cyclones team is different, I don’t think the talent difference will be overwhelming.

Bet: Kansas +3 (-106 – 1.5 units)

RELATED: Here’s an updated look at the Heisman Trophy betting markets!

UCF at Arizona State – 7:00 pm ET

I’m a little surprised to see that Arizona State can be had at such a small moneyline number. I would have expected something north of -200 here. Offensively, not much separates these two teams. UCF’s EPA per play is 0.088 this season and Arizona State’s is 0.074. However, the Knights are going to need to hope that they can execute in a very difficult road environment. On top of that, Arizona State is a much better defensive team than UCF. The Sun Devils are 30th in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.061), and they’re 24th in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.062). That’s big against a Knights team that really relies on the running game.

I think the big concern here is that Cam Skattebo might be out for Arizona State. He has rushed for 1,001 yards and 11 touchdowns this season, and he is one of the best running backs in football. But the Sun Devils will be ready to go even if he’s not out there. Arizona State has a talented running back room, and Kenny Dillingham is one of the best offensive minds in the country. That said, I’d be stunned if he and offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo can’t figure out a way to attack a mediocre defense.

UCF is also 0-5 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages between 60% and 75% under Gus Malzahn, and the Knights have lost those games by an average of 11.8 points per game. And I’m not even looking to the Sun Devils to cover. I’m just taking them to win outright. And by the way, Arizona State is 4-0 SU as a home favorite under Dillingham. The team is also 5-0 as a favorite under him. This team hasn’t been expected to win a lot of games over the last two years, but the Sun Devils get the job done when they are.

Bet: Arizona State ML (-148 – 1.5 units)

BYU at Utah – 10:15 pm ET

Utah has been one of the most disappointing teams in college football this year. But the Utes aren’t going to roll over and let the Cougars beat them. This rivalry game should bring out the best in Utah, which has now had extra time to figure out the offense. Kyle Whittingham moved on from offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig a few weeks ago, and it’s now Mike Bajakian that is calling the shots. So, let’s see how this thing looks with Utah having not played since October 26. The Utes have had some miserable play under center this year, as Cam Rising is injured and Isaac Wilson hasn’t looked good filling in for him. But that could change with extra preparation time, and this Utah team can really run the football. Considering all of that, I’d expect a slightly better version of the Utes offense in this one.

I also have no doubts about Utah’s defense showing up in this one. The Utes are 37th in the nation in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.049), so they should be able to slow down BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff and the Cougars passing game. Utah just has to make sure Retzlaff doesn’t get going with his legs. He’s very good as an improvisational player.

I understand the tables have turned a bit in this rivalry, as BYU is looking like the more dangerous program. But the Cougars haven’t won in Rice-Eccles Stadium since 2006. I’m not sure that changes this weekend.

This is also a game in which the betting public will be all over BYU, as it seems like the easy play to back an 8-0 team against a 4-4 team. But that’s usually fool’s gold.

Bet: Utah +4 (-110 – 1.5 units) & Utah ML (+150 – 0.5 units)

Added Plays

Rice +14.5 vs. Memphis & Iowa ML vs. UCLA (-120 – 1.5 units)
Georgia Tech +10.5 (-105 – 1.5 units) vs. Miami
Ole Miss ML (+115) vs. Georgia
PARLAY: Virginia Tech +14.5 vs. Clemson & South Carolina ML vs. Vanderbilt (-105 – 2 units)
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee Over 61.5 (-110)

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2024 Record: 36-39-1 (-3.94 units)

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