Week 3 of the 2024 college football season is here and our VSiN team is attacking it relentlessly. If you haven’t already, make sure you check out the Week 3 CFB Betting Hub for write-ups and picks from all of our talented analysts. However, keep reading for my college football best bets and predictions for this exciting Week 3 slate. I’ll probably add some picks as lines move and more information comes out later in the week — and on game day. If I do, they’ll be thrown on the VSiN Pro Picks page. Don’t miss out on those.

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2024 Record: 7-6 (+1.58 units)

North Texas vs. Texas Tech – 12:00 pm ET
LSU vs. South Carolina – 12:00 pm ET

I said not to get used to these 7-point teasers, and I truly don’t plan on playing many this season. I understand they’re riskier in college football, and these aren’t exactly the types of bets people are looking for from people like me. However, I’m personally playing this one on Saturday, so I figured I’d share it. I flirted with taking +9.5 with the Mean Green as a side, but I wanted to essentially get LSU down to a moneyline play. So, I took an extra touchdown with North Texas.

I just haven’t been impressed with Texas Tech to start this season. The Red Raiders needed overtime to beat FCS Abilene Christian in Week 1. Texas Tech’s defense gave up 615 yards of total offense in that game, and 506 of those yards came through the air. The Red Raiders then followed it up with a 37-16 loss to Washington State in Week 2. So, we have now seen this Texas Tech team get absolutely torched in back-to-back games. That makes it pretty easy to envision a scenario in which North Texas quarterback Chandler Morris has some success in this game. I know the Mean Green have only played Stephen F. Austin and South Alabama so far, but they’re averaging 43.5 points per game through two games. They’re also 39th in EPA per play on offense. I also don’t think the Red Raiders offense looks good. Of course, they put up 52 points in their win over Abilene Christian, but they followed it up with a stinker against the Cougars. Behren Morton looked uncomfortable from start to finish in that Washington State loss, and the Red Raiders weren’t able to get the vertical passing game going. If they’re not hitting home runs through the air, it could be hard for them to blow out the Mean Green.

As far as LSU goes, I think that loss to USC is going to age rather well. The Trojans have a much-improved defense and Miller Moss is legit. And the Tigers still had chances to win that game, which was honestly played with a playoff-like atmosphere. If anything, I came away impressed with LSU. It looks like Blake Baker has the defense figured out, and he’s a big part of the reason I love the Tigers to win this game. Last year, a Baker-led Missouri defense gave up only 12 points against South Carolina. That was with Spencer Rattler at quarterback and Xavier Legette at wideout. Sure, new starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers is electric in his own right, but I’d be surprised if this Gamecocks team is much better offensively in 2024 than it was in 2023. I also don’t have much faith in the South Carolina defense keeping LSU down. Garrett Nussmeier and the Tigers left some food on the table against USC, but he came back with 302 passings yards, six touchdowns and no picks in last week’s win over Nicholls. That’s obviously inferior competition, but it should serve as a confidence boost heading into this massive game.

7-POINT TEASER: North Texas +16.5 & LSU PK (-120)

Oregon vs. Oregon State – 3:30 pm ET

I was extremely off in my handicap of last week’s meeting between Boise State and Oregon. I thought the Ducks would be able to slow down Ashton Jeanty, but he rushed for 192 yards and three touchdowns while nearly leading the Broncos to a road win. That was the one loss I took in Week 2, and it never even had a chance. However, I still believe Oregon is an elite team on both sides of the ball, and I think we’ll see the Ducks wake up in the Civil War.

Under head coach Dan Lanning, Oregon is 8-0 straight-up and 7-1 against the spread as a road favorite. Also, since 2022, Oregon State is just 0-2 ATS as an underdog of 10 to 21.5 points. On top of that, the Ducks won 31-7 as 14-point home favorites when these teams met last year, and that was a more talented Oregon State team — and one that was coached by Jonathan Smith, who went 25-13 over his final three seasons with the Beavers. Oregon State lost a lot of talent when Smith decided to move on, and being left without a conference didn’t help in keeping players around.

There’s just a massive gap in talent in this game, and I think we’ll see it when watching the Oregon State offense try to keep up with the Oregon offense. Last week, quarterback Gevani McCoy and the Beavers struggled to put up points against San Diego State. Well, Oregon has a lot more talent on the defensive side of the ball than that. And not only will the Ducks be fired up for this rivalry game, but they’ll also be motivated to put last week’s performance behind them.

I also continue to be somewhat encouraged by what I have seen from Dillon Gabriel. The lefty has taken seven sacks this season, which is a little surprising considering the expectations for this Oregon offensive line. That’s something that should get better as Gabriel gets more comfortable in this offense. But the lefty has still thrown for 623 yards with four touchdowns and no picks this season, and he rushed for a score against Boise State last week. Once the pass protection stuff gets figured out, Gabriel should start to show everybody why he’s viewed as a favorite in Heisman Trophy talks.

I expect everything to click in this game, as Oregon State’s defense just doesn’t have the type of athletes required to make life difficult on Oregon. While the same can probably be said about Boise State, that’s a Broncos team that many like to win the Mountain West and represent the Group of Five in the College Football Playoff.

All in all, I can see this game being somewhat tight for a quarter or so, but I ultimately like the Ducks to win comfortably.

Bet: Oregon -16.5 (-105)

Indiana vs. UCLA – 7:30 pm ET

My favorite play of Week 3 calls for Indiana to cover a 3-point spread against UCLA. The Bruins have had two weeks to prepare for this game, as they faced Hawaii in Week 0 and didn’t play last week. But I’m extremely down on this UCLA program. The Bruins don’t have the talent or coaching to compete with solid Big Ten teams this year, and it doesn’t help that they also lack a true home-field advantage. UCLA’s offense, which is now coached by Eric Bienemy, looked miserable against a poor Hawaii defense in Week 0. So, even with an extra week to dive into this specific matchup, I’m not sure I see the Bruins finding much offensive success against a Hoosiers team that is 20th in college football in EPA per play allowed through two weeks.

Indiana hasn’t faced great competition early in the year, but the team looked good in a 77-3 win over Western Illinois and a 31-7 win over Florida International. Curt Cignetti has proven that he is a program builder and a winner at every level of college football, and he now has some real resources to make a stamp with a Power Four program. With James Madison, Cignetti went 33-5 over three seasons, and his teams were excellent on both sides of the ball. The Dukes were also prepared every single week. Things are looking somewhat similar in Bloomington early on.

Overall, I just trust this defense to turn in a good effort against UCLA. Ethan Garbers simply isn’t good enough to light up this Hoosiers team. And the Bruins only got 24 rushing yards on 13 carries out of everybody but Garbers in Week 0. I also love what I have seen from the Indiana offense thus far. Kurtis Rourke has done everything that has been asked of him in the passing game, and the Hoosiers have a good offensive line and a great group of running backs. Look for Indiana to get some good push up front in this one, paving the way for an effective running day. That would then take the pressure off Rourke to come up big in third-and-long situations.

I also found an interesting nugget at StatSharp. Since 1992, road teams with experienced quarterbacks are 57-23 ATS when playing teams with inexperienced quarterbacks after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. The road team has also won those games by an average of 10.5 points per game. I know some people are skeptical of trends, but this is one that can be explained pretty easily. Teams that are playing well defensively, that also happen to have a proven player at the most important offensive position, should do well against teams that have uncertainty under center.

Bet: Indiana -3 (-110 – 1.5 units)

Maryland vs. Virginia – 8:00 pm ET

Since 2015, home teams are 31-7 on the moneyline when playing non-conference games after a road win by three or fewer points. The home team has also won by an average of 19.3 points per game in this situation, and it applies to Virginia here. The Cavaliers were able to come away with an impressive 31-30 comeback win over Wake Forest last week, and they now head home with some serious momentum.

What I really like about this matchup is that Maryland is just 76th in EPA per play allowed on defense this year, despite having faced Michigan State and UConn in its first two games. Those aren’t good offenses. The Terrapins do have some talent in the front seven, but I don’t think that’ll help much here. Maryland’s secondary is a little shaky, which gives Virginia head coach Tony Elliott something he can attack. And he has the right quarterback to do it.

Anthony Colandrea isn’t afraid to take shots down the field, and I expect him to find some success in doing so. Elliott is going to call some screens to get the ball into the hands of his big wide receiver Malachi Fields Jr., who is tough after the catch. The Terps will have some trouble bringing him down. And if they over-adjust and play press coverage, that’s when Colandrea will look to hit some bombs. Also, Colandrea knows how to use his legs, which should help him escape some of the pressure that the Terps get with their defensive line.

I’m not crazy about what Virginia has on defense, even with a lot of starters back from last year. But the Cavaliers did figure things out against the Demon Deacons in the second half, and that’s a tricky offense to play against. The Terrapins also happen to be much worse offensively than they were with Taulia Tagovailoa under center. So, with this being a home game, Virginia should be able to turn in a decent performance on this side of the ball. The Cavaliers are at least solid against the run, meaning they’ll be able to put Maryland quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. in some tough spots. The junior has been alright this season, but he could be a little rattled in his first road start.

Bet: Virginia ML (+120)

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