Week 6 college football best bets and predictions
The college football season is in full gear and VSiN is pumping out more content for it than ever. All of our college football stories and resources are available at our Week 6 CFB Bet Hub, where you’ll also get best bets from all of my incredibly talented colleagues. But you’ll have to keep reading this one to get my college football best bets every week. I have four plays that I’m jumping on early this week, with one of them being on an exciting matchup between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Louisville Cardinals. And I might add some more picks later on. If I do, they’ll be thrown in at the bottom of this story, so definitely make sure to come back and look for more Week 6 college football best bets throughout the day on Saturday, October 7.
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Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State Buckeyes
Maryland has lost by an average of 52.0 points per game in its last three trips to Ohio Stadium. Of course, this Terrapins team is better than some recent ones, with Maryland being 5-0 for the first time since 2001. And the team does have a good quarterback in Taulia Tagovailoa, who has thrown for 1,464 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions this year. Tagovailoa is also coming off a game in which he torched Indiana for 352 yards and five touchdowns. The problem is that Maryland is now facing an Ohio State team that is a completely different beast.
While the Terrapins offense has the ability to put up points, the Buckeyes have arguably the best defense in the nation. Only Michigan is giving up fewer than the 8.5 points per game that Ohio State is allowing this season, and the Buckeyes are especially tough against the pass. This season, they’re allowing just 149.0 yards per game through the air. And we saw exactly how good this passing defense was in a win over Sam Hartman and Notre Dame. Hartman has been one of the best quarterbacks in college football for years, but he wasn’t able to get anything going against Ohio State. I think the Buckeyes will similarly bottle up the Terrapins receivers, and they’ll also get some pressure on Tagovailoa.
I’m also not sold on Maryland’s defense being legit. The Terps are allowing only 13.2 points per game this year, which is obviously an amazing mark. But they played Towson and Charlotte to start the year, and they haven’t exactly played anyone good since. Virginia, Michigan State and Indiana are all teams that will fail to play their way into bowl eligibility this season, so we haven’t seen much from Maryland that shows this defense can shut down Ohio State. This is a game in which Kyle McCord and Marvin Harrison Jr. should go crazy, especially with the Buckeyes offensive line likely giving its quarterback a lot of time to throw. Ohio State should also have success on the ground here.
Overall, I think Maryland is a pretender at this point in the season. And the talent mismatch in this game will be massive. When you combine that with the fact that Ryan Day had an extra week to get his team prepared for this one, it could get very ugly. Ohio State is 8-2 straight-up and 6-4 ATS after a bye week under Day. And Maryland is 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points under head coach Mike Locksley.
Bet: Ohio State -19.5 (-112 – Play to -20.5)
Syracuse Orange at North Carolina Tar Heels
Last week, Syracuse was exposed in a 31-14 loss to Clemson. The Tigers moved the ball extremely easily against the Orange, despite having had some offensive struggles to start the season. Meanwhile, Syracuse only totaled 286 yards of offense in that game, and the team turned the ball over three times. Considering that was the Orange’s first step up in competition, it was a troubling performance. And I’m not expecting them to struggle to keep things competitive against the Tar Heels.
North Carolina is averaging 35.8 points per game this season, and the team’s passing game is due for a breakout performance. Drake Maye has only thrown for 1,187 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions this year, but he threw for 4,321 yards with 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions last year. Of course, losing offensive coordinator Phil Longo and a lot of talented receivers doesn’t help. But Maye is simply too good to continue to put up mediocre numbers. And I think there’s a good chance he’ll completely shred this Orange secondary, especially with North Carolina having had the bye week to prepare for this one. Maye’s legs should also help against Syracuse, as he has rushed for 10 touchdowns over the last two seasons.
That bye week should also allow the Tar Heels defense to show up in this game. I’m not sure North Carolina is capable of completely shutting Syracuse down, but the Tar Heels can do a lot of good by selling out against the run and forcing quarterback Garrett Shrader to beat them through the air. That’s what the Tigers did last week and he was not up for the challenge, completing just 51.7% of his passes and turning the ball over twice. Shrader should have some more opportunities to make plays with his arm in this one, but I think North Carolina’s defense will hold up just fine here. And that should be enough to help the Tar Heels comfortably cover with the way I’m expecting their offense to click in this spot.
Bet: North Carolina -8 (-110)
Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils
Colorado is coming off two tough games in a row, as the team got blown out by Oregon and then lost 48-41 in a home game against USC last week. Those were two emotional games for Coach Prime’s team, and the Buffaloes now head to Tempe for a game that could be a lot tougher than expected. Arizona State is currently 0-4 on the season, but the team has looked a lot sharper over the last two weeks. The Sun Devils have covered in back-to-back games, as they put forth an admirable effort against the Trojans and then lost by just three on the road against the Golden Bears last week.
The big difference with this Arizona State team is that the passing game is finally clicking. Two games ago, Drew Pyne threw for 221 yards with two touchdowns and one pick in the loss to USC. And while the Sun Devils lost Pyne after that one, they were fortunate enough to have Trenton Bourguet, last year’s starter, ready to go against Cal. Bourguet threw for 344 yards in that game, and he also added a score on the ground. Jaden Rashada and Pyne might be more talented than Bourguet, but there’s something about the junior’s heart and tenacity that can’t be ignored. His teammates seem to really get up when he’s under center, and I think he’ll turn in another big game this week. Colorado is allowing 6.4 yards per play this season, which is a miserable number. Also, only seven teams are allowing more passing yards per game than the 296.0 the Buffs are giving up.
It’s also worth noting that one of the main weaknesses for Arizona State this year has been the offensive line play, with the team just insanely shorthanded up front. But I’m not sure Colorado will be able to take advantage of that. The Buffaloes are outside the nation’s top 100 in havoc rate, which means they aren’t getting into the opponent’s backfield that often. That will allow the Sun Devils to sit back and execute Kenny Dillingham’s offense.
Defensively, I do have concerns over how the Sun Devils will hold up against Shedeur Sanders. But I think this is a game that will be high scoring, with the difference coming down to a few stops. And I trust the home team to be the one that gets more of those, especially in one of the more underrated environments in the sport. It’s also something of a letdown spot for Colorado, with the team’s season spiraling a bit after back-to-back losses.
Bet: Arizona State +4.5 (-110 – Play to +3.5)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Louisville Cardinals
I got burned by Notre Dame last week, as I had a big play on Duke +5.5 and a small one on the moneyline. However, I still feel as though I was on the right side in that game, and I think the Fighting Irish are in for another tough one here. Not only do I question whether Notre Dame is up for a third emotional battle in a row, but I also think that this Louisville team is flying under the radar a bit.
I know the Cardinals failed to cover in their road win over NC State last week, but that was still a big victory for Jeff Brohm’s team. And Louisville has now allowed 14 or fewer points in three of its last four games. That shows that the Cardinals do have it in them to shut down their opponents, even if they did give up 34 points to Georgia Tech and 28 points to Boston College. But Louisville can lock in when it needs to and I think Brohm will have his team fired up for this game. This is a signature matchup in the Brohm era and I expect the Cardinals to be up for the challenge. They have been especially stingy against the run this year, which could blow up the Fighting Irish’s gameplan. Notre Dame has been leaning heavily on Audric Estime and the running game lately, with Hartman not exactly carving teams up the way he did early in the season. And if Louisville can slow Estime down, this just might turn into a nightmare of a game for the Irish.
Notre Dame’s defense could also struggle with Louisville’s speed offensively. Notre Dame has the nation’s 14th-ranked scoring defense this year, but it’s easy to have defensive breakdowns against a team as fast as Louisville. With that in mind, I can see some of the Cardinals burners getting by for a deep touchdown. Louisville has five players that have scored touchdowns of at least 40 yards in the receiving game this season. And overall, Jamari Thrash is just one of the toughest covers in football. Jack Plummer isn’t anything special at the quarterback position, but he gets the ball out and gives those guys chances to make plays. And Jawhar Jordan is a stud at running back, so he could also have his moments here.
Much like last week, I don’t think much separates these two teams here. I would obviously feel better about getting 7 or 7.5 with Louisville because of what happened last week, but I think the home team gets the job done in this one.
Bet: Louisville +6.5 (-109) & Louisville ML (+210 – 0.5 units)
2023 Record: 25-23-1 (-0.88 units)
Added Plays
Central Michigan/Buffalo Under 54 (-112)
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