Week 11 of the 2025 college football season is here and our VSiN team is attacking it relentlessly. If you haven’t already, make sure you check out the Week 11 CFB Betting Hub for write-ups and picks from all of our talented analysts. However, I’d love for you to keep reading for my college football best bets and predictions for this exciting Week 11 slate. I’ll probably add some picks as lines move and more information comes out later in the week — and on game day. If I do, I’ll put them on the VSiN Pro Picks page. Don’t miss out on those.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for college football best bets from all of our analysts
BYU Cougars at Texas Tech Red Raiders – 12:00 pm ET
This was one of the plays I gave out on Cashing Out on Monday, but BYU can still be found at +10.5. With that in mind, I figured I’d make the case again. BYU has a big rest advantage coming into this one, as the Cougars are coming off a bye week. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders had to go to Manhattan and face the Wildcats in a game that was a little tougher than the 43-20 final score suggests. Extra rest and preparation is always big in conference games.
Under Kalani Sitake, BYU also happens to be 7-2 against the spread as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is just 4-9 both straight-up and ATS in games with totals between 49.5 and 56 under Joey McGuire. The Red Raiders are also just 5-6 ATS when facing teams that rush for 200 or more yards per game with McGuire on the sidelines. That last one feels like a big one. BYU can really control games with LJ Martin pounding away up the middle. I know the Texas Tech defensive line is tremendous, but Sitake’s offensive line will be confident in its ability to create holes. Bear Bachmeier, who has been tremendous as a true freshman, will also make some plays with his legs here.
The Cougars also happen to have a top-30 passing defense (-0.10 Dropback EPA per play allowed), which could be interesting against Behren Morton. Texas Tech has proven to be awesome all season long, but Morton hasn’t been perfect under center. How will he look in a meeting with a very good defense?
It’s also worth nothing that there isn’t much that separates these teams in Adjusted EPA per play. Texas Tech’s is +0.19 and BYU’s is +0.14. That said, I’m just not expecting the beatdown that this line implies we’re about to see. And honestly, I can see the Cougars finding a way to win. This has looked like a special group all year.
Bet: BYU +10.5 (-112 – 1.5 units) & BYU ML (+320 – 0.5 units)
Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers – 7:00 pm ET
This game really should have higher stakes. These are two massive brands, both teams have talent, and expectations were much higher for both groups. Instead, both programs will head into the offseason looking to reset and get things right in 2026. However, while this game is somewhat meaningless, that doesn’t mean it’s going to be boring. In fact, this has the potential to be one of the higher scoring games on the Week 11 slate.
Game On Paper has both of these teams in the top-25 in Dropback EPA per play. Meanwhile, both of these passing defenses are extremely beatable. The Seminoles are a little too blitz-happy, leaving their secondary exposed. They can also struggle to contain the quarterback run. Meanwhile, the Tigers are prone to all kinds of defensive breakdowns. Last week, they allowed 46 points in a home loss against the Blue Devils.
The Over has now hit in back-to-back Clemson games, with the team giving up an average of 40.5 points per game. It’s not fair to say these players have quit on the coaching staff, but something isn’t right. And it sure isn’t fair to expect anything to change in this matchup. Meanwhile, Cade Klubnik and Co. will feel good about going out there and lighting up FSU.
Since Mike Norvell started coaching the Seminoles, the Over is 17-11 when his teams play games with totals between 56.5 and 63. Also, since the start of last season, the Over is 6-4 when the Tigers play teams that average at least 250 passing yards per game.
Bet: Over 56 (-110)
Added Plays
UCF ML (-105 – 1.5 units) vs. Houston
Oregon -5.5 (-110) vs. Iowa – I gave this out on my Monday spot with Dustin Swedelson on Cashing Out.
PARLAY: Georgia ML vs. Mississippi State & Virginia ML vs. Wake Forest (-125 – 1.5 units)
Penn State +15.5 (-110) vs. Indiana – I gave this out on my Monday spot with Dustin Swedelson on Cashing Out
Check the Pro Picks page for any additional plays, or come back here right before kick-off to see if I added something on the game you’re interested in.
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2025 Record: 54-54 (-1.83 units)
