Week 3 of the 2026 college football season is here and our VSiN team is attacking it relentlessly. If you haven’t already, make sure you check out the Week 3 CFB Betting Hub for write-ups and picks from all of our talented analysts. However, I’d love for you to keep reading for my college football best bets and predictions for this exciting Week 3 slate. I’ll probably add some picks as lines move and more information comes out later in the week — and on game day. If I do, I’ll put them on the VSiN Pro Picks page. Don’t miss out on those.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for college football best bets from all of our analysts
North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson Tigers – 12:00 pm ET
It might feel a little early in the year to start ditching last year’s stats, but we have to do it eventually. Well, when looking at this game, there’s a pretty big difference in the numbers. Through two games, North Carolina is 40th in the nation in Net EPA/Play (+0.22), according to Game On Paper. Meanwhile, Clemson is 123rd in the nation with a Net EPA/Play of -0.70.
Dabo Swinney’s defense got absolutely carved up by LSU in Week 1, giving up 51 points and 644 yards of total offense. Lane Kiffin has one of the best offenses in college football, but that’s an unacceptable performance for a team with this much defensive talent. The crazy thing is that the offense is much worse. Clemson has scored a total of 32 points for the season, and last week’s 22-point performance against Georgia Southern was pitiful. The Tigers do have some intriguing players scattered throughout the offense, but their quarterback situation is terrifying — especially for a university with a huge brand. Christopher Vizzina hasn’t looked any good under center, and Tait Reynolds looked super shaky as a thrower in relief last week.
It’s just hard to envision Clemson breaking out offensively against UNC, as Bill Belichick’s defense has a Net EPA/Play of -0.15. That’s a top-15 mark early in the season. If Reynolds ends up starting here, the Tar Heels’ job becomes rather easy. If you slow down Gideon Davidson, you win the game.
I have also been impressed with UNC’s offense under Bobby Petrino. As a Wisconsin fan, it’s a little annoying seeing Billy Edwards Jr. playing well in another jersey. But he has been rather sharp as a distributor at the quarterback position, and the Tar Heels have some explosive skill-position guys.
Bet: North Carolina +3.5 (-115) & North Carolina ML (+145 – 0.5 units)
Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson Tide – 3:30 pm ET
Last year, I had Florida State to beat Alabama. I thought the Seminoles would be fired up, they had dynamic talent on offense, and it’s always hard for road teams to win at Doak Campbell Stadium. This year, I have very little belief in Florida Sate, and I love what I have seen from Kalen DeBoer’s group.
The Seminoles had an early chance to make a statement this year, as they hosted the Mustangs after a Week 1 win. On top of that, SMU star Kevin Jennings struggled mightily in the game, leaving the door open for Florida State. However, the Seminoles just don’t have a passing game. Ashton Daniels has a strong set of legs, which does a little to mask his lack of arm talent. But the second half of that game made it clear that Mike Norvell has zero faith in his aerial attack. Daniels can make the simplest of throws, but he’s a bit of a lost cause once his first read is gone. The Crimson Tide, with a great defensive coordinator in Kane Wommack, will eat them up if they know the run is coming. They’re fourth in the nation in EPA/Play (-0.26) on defense so far, and they look great against the run.
Alabama should also move the ball easily against Florida State. Keelon Russell hasn’t yet performed up to the high expectations people had for him heading into the year, but the Tide have been finding success anyway. Against a shaky defense, they should put up a ton of points, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Russell has his best game with the team.
DeBoer has also been a good coach to back at home. Since joining Alabama, the Tide are 12-3 against the spread in Tuscaloosa. Alabama has also won those games by an average of 28.3 points per game. Also, Norvell is 0-6 ATS with Florida State when coming off a loss of three points or fewer.
Bet: Alabama -19.5 (-110)
Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers – 7:00 pm ET
This game is toying with me. Florida as a short moneyline favorite almost looks too good to be true, and part of me considered bailing on this pick because of that. However, the heart wants what it wants, and mine wants the Gators — even on the road. Auburn might be 2-0 on the season, but these teams have drastically different statistical profiles. Florida is No. 1 in the country in Net EPA/Play (+1.16) through two weeks, and Auburn is No. 108 (-0.39). The only advantage I’d say the Tigers have here is that they played a tough game earlier in the year, as we did see Auburn edge out Baylor. But that’s really where it ends.
It feels like Jon Sumrall didn’t get as much love as he should have this offseason. It was a great hire for the Gators, and he seems to have his team looking hungry and organized. That’s been missing in Gainesville in recent seasons.
Florida is also way more talented than Auburn. Byrum Brown might be a better runner than Aaron Philo, but a good argument can be made that the latter is the better player. And I strongly prefer the skill position talent with Florida, especially with Jadan Baugh looking like one of the best rushers in college football. The defensive talent also strongly favors the Gators.
It’s just very hard to wrap my head around Florida not being in the -175 to -200 range, so this is a bit of a bigger play for me.
Bet: Florida ML (-135 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
PARLAY: Pittsburgh ML vs. Syracuse & Houston Alt +10.5 vs. Texas Tech (+106)
Stanford +10.5 (-130) at Duke
Virginia Tech ML (-135) at Maryland
LSU ML (-154) vs. Ole Miss
Check the Pro Picks page for any additional plays, or come back here right before kick-off to see if I added something on the game you’re interested in.
Week 2
ASU +15.5 (-110) vs. Texas A&M
Cal +3.5 (-110) vs. Syracuse
Iowa State +14.5 (-120) vs. Iowa
PARLAY: Michigan +8.5 vs. Oklahoma & Minneota +8.5 vs. Mississippi State (+114)
South Alabama +10 (-110) vs. Tulane
PARLAY: Texas +8.5 vs. Ohio State & Illinois ML vs. Duke (-125)
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2026 Record: 8-4 (+3.45 units)
