College Football Stability Systems Picks for Week 3

College Football Stability Systems Picks for Week 3:

My new Stability Systems angles have had mixed results so far, as teams with a lot of experienced starters in play have thrived, going 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS the last two weeks. Teams with new defensive coordinators have also proved to be profitable fades, as have teams with low overall Stability Scores of 0-6. 

However, my long-held theory that one team with a stability edge over another of at least six points hasn’t come through, nor has assuming new head coaches would be a detriment. We have one week left to test the theories in 2026 before perhaps going back to the drawing board for the future. We all know that we are in a different era of college football now, and finding ways to measure and successfully utilize all of the transition information seems critical to bettors, especially in these first few weeks. My goal is to find it or die trying! 

Hopefully, by now, you are familiar with my long-running methodology on measuring college football program stability at the start of each season. In short, I like to quantify the level of stability for each program in the offseason. I figure that the higher the level of stability, the better the chances for success for any team, particularly early in the season. Naturally, putting a numerical grade to it makes it easier to spot this stability. Again, the point spread considered, the feeling is that oddsmakers don’t adjust enough for the “instability.”

My stability variables are head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, starting quarterback and overall returning starters. I have attached the chart for this season, with one noteworthy change, that being the removal of a 4 from Charlotte for the starting quarterback injury to Conner Harrell.

VIEW COLLEGE FOOTBALL STABILITY SCORES CHART HERE

This past offseason I did an in-depth study of all of the stability factors and came up with several new betting angles worthy of bettors’ attention. Here they are with the qualifying plays for Week 3, and as a reminder, these systems only cover FBS vs. FBS games:

Note: Lines shown were as of Tuesday afternoon, 9/15. In general, all systems are NOT line-dependent other than the 30-point threshold and go under the assumption that oddsmakers have not accounted enough for the stability imbalance.

* NEW head coaches are 115-170 SU and 134-151 ATS (47%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning head coaches since 2021 (13-6 SU and 11-8 ATS last week)

2026 Week 3 Plays: AGAINST Coastal Carolina +4.5, Penn State -40.5, Arkansas +24.5, Iowa State -23.5, North Texas +3, Toledo -5.5, Michigan -35.5, Kentucky +16.5, Utah -28.5, Stanford +9.5, Missouri State +3.5, Ohio U +5.5, Virginia Tech -3, Colorado State +17.5, Michigan State +29.5, James Madison +2.5, Northern Illinois +34.5, Sacramento State +27.5, UCLA -14

* NEW defensive coordinators are 189-227 SU and 191-218-7 ATS (46.7%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning defensive coordinators since 2021 (14-16 SU and ATS last week)

2026 Week 3 Plays: AGAINST Coastal Carolina +4.5, Kent State +52.5,  Kansas State -20.5, Arkansas +24.5, Eastern Michigan +24.5, Toledo -5.5, Cincinnati -14.5, Michigan -35.5, Utah -28.5, Stanford +9.5, Baylor -19.5, East Carolina +3, Georgia State +18.5, Georgia Southern +3, Ohio U +5.5, Florida -2.5, Virginia Tech -3, Colorado +3.5, BYU -17.5, Tennessee -35.5, UAB +7.5, Northern Illinois +34.5, Sacramento State +27.5, San Jose State +6.5

* Teams with 17+ total returning starters are 118-89 SU and 116-89-2 ATS (56.6%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 16 or fewer since 2021 (5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS last week for the second straight week)

2026 Week 3 Plays: ON Houston +7.5, USC -23.5, Texas A&M -16.5, Virginia Tech -3, Notre Dame -29.5, UCLA -14

From this info, bettors can certainly discern that having new head coaches, new defensive coordinators and a lot of returning starters are the most impactful offseason happenings. 

Over the last decade-plus, the “old stability system” that I depended on was about a 56% consistent running strategy up until last fall. However, I was also able to recognize that conference games were pulling the winning percentages down. In fact, the teams with the old stability edge of seven points or more in conference game action were only winning around 49.5% ATS.

The other two things I found that were negatively impacting my Stability System results were 1) games with point spreads of 30+ and 2) leaving out teams with an edge of 6 on the stability scores.

With the stats above in mind, my official new College Football Stability System(s) will read as follows: 

Play ON any team with a STABILITY SCORE EDGE of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game DOES NOT have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (351-242 SU and 317-264-12 ATS, 54.6% since 2013), including 7-11 SU and ATS last week. 

2026 Week 3 Plays: ON Delaware -4.5, Texas State -3, Temple +5.5, Florida Atlantic -7, Charlotte +15.5, Marshall -3.5, South Alabama -5.5, Maryland +3, BYU -17.5, Notre Dame -29.5, Louisiana -7.5, San Diego State -2.5, North Dakota State -27.5, Fresno State -6.5

AND

Play AGAINST any college football teams with STABILITY SCORES of 0-6 in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3) versus teams with higher scores, assuming the game DOES NOT have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team (FADE record 278-156 SU and 236-193-4 ATS, 55% since 2013), including 9-10 SU and 10-9 ATS last week.

2026 Week 3 Plays: (FADE ALL) Coastal Carolina +4.5, North Texas +3, Toledo -5.5, Cincinnati -14.5, Utah -28.5, East Carolina +3, Missouri State +3.5, Ohio U +5.5, Virginia Tech -3, Colorado State +17.5, Michigan State +29.5, James Madison +2.5, Sacramento State +27.5

If you are unfamiliar with the Stability methodology, you can see the complete system explanation and background by downloading the VSiN College Football Betting Guide.

For more Week 3 college football picks and predictions, visit the VSiN Week 3 College Football Hub.

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