Illinois State vs. Montana State
The FCS National Championship Game features one team that a lot of pundits and prognosticators expected to be there and one that they really did not. Illinois State vs. Montana State in Nashville, TN will decide the Division I-AA champion, as the Redbirds are hoping to finish off their Cinderella run and the Bobcats are hoping to end a 40-season drought without a title.
Montana State’s had chances, as they’ve won the Big Sky Conference in three of the last four years and nine times total in the 2000s. In 2021 and 2024, they finished as the FCS runner-up, losing to North Dakota State both times. Fortunately for them, Illinois State took out North Dakota State with one of the biggest FCS playoff upsets in history, winning 29-28 with a game-winning two-point conversion as a 23.5-point underdog.
The Redbirds have won four road playoff games to get to this point and now have the opportunity to make history in a neutral setting in the Music City.
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FCS National Championship Game: Illinois State vs. Montana State (-10.5, 56.5)
Monday, Jan. 5, 7:30 p.m. ET
With no Monday Night Football in the NFL and no other bowl games, this game gets the standalone ESPN slot that it deserves. Our own Stormy Buonantony will be on the sidelines for this one at FirstBank Stadium and it should be an electrifying atmosphere because of what’s at stake and the history, both recent and long-term, of these two programs.
Illinois State head coach Brock Spack is in his 17th season with the Redbirds and has won over 60% of his games, but this is the program’s first title game appearance since 2014 and just the second in program history at the FCS level. Coincidentally, the Redbirds lost to North Dakota State in that 2014 title game. This year, not only did they beat the Bison in the second road, but also beat UC Davis and Villanova to get to Nashville.
It may be a touch disingenuous to call Illinois State a true Cinderella, as they did finish the regular season ranked 17th in the FCS polls, but they did lose by 17 to NDSU on Oct. 4 and got pummeled by No. 24 Southern Illinois to end the regular season with a 30-point loss on Senior Day. Clearly they rallied in a big way.
The Redbirds come into this one having scored 30.6 PPG, with Tony Petersen’s spread offense running through QB Tommy Rittenhouse. It is a tough schedule and a tough conference in the Missouri Valley, as Rittenhouse heads into this game with a 36/12 TD/INT ratio and over 3,200 yards passing. His favorite target, Daniel Sobkowicz, has 78 catches for 1,089 yards, as he has nearly double the number of yards of the next closest player, Dylan Lord.
Sobkowicz even missed a couple of games, but he’s caught seven TD passes and has over 400 yards during this postseason run. Rittenhouse also has seven touchdowns on the ground over 101 carries, but the ground game is powered by Victor Dawson, who is approaching 1,300 yards for the season. Interestingly, Illinois State’s 23 rushing touchdowns were the same number that they allowed to their opponents, but they enter this game with 12 more passing TD than their foes.
The Bobcats are bringing one of the nation’s top offenses across the country, as they sit eighth in points per game with 38.1 and 17th in total offense with 437.1 yards per game. They are ninth in yards per play, but Illinois State has already beaten North Dakota State (2nd) and UC Davis (6th), so they’ve dealt with their share of explosive offenses.
Montana State beat rival Montana to get here, largely on the shoulders of QB Justin Lamson and his 24/3 TD/INT ratio, as well as his 902 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. The Bobcats also have two 1,000-yard backs in Julius Davis (6.7 YPC) and Adam Jones (6.2 YPC). With the strength of that ground game and a feisty defense, the championship favorites more than doubled up opponents this season by an average score of 38-18 and more than doubled them in yardage 571-270.
Illinois State’s body of work is much less impressive, though their strength of schedule sits a little bit higher (140 vs. 150) per Jeff Sagarin. Illinois State has outscored their opponents by an average of 30.6-25.1 and have only outgained them by an average of less than 10 yards per game. But, they have stepped up at the right time on both offense and defense.
The Redbirds have 34 sacks and 26 takeaways on the season, while the Bobcats have 27 takeaways and 32 sacks.
Illinois State vs. Montana State FCS National Championship Game Prediction
Something that really stood out in the breakdown of this game is that Montana State has outscored opponents 146-89 in the fourth quarter and Illinois State has been outscored 161-76. The Bobcats’ ground game and a very mobile QB in Lamson have the chance to put some distance in this game in the second half. Montana State is also 17-of-21 on field goals, while Illinois State is just 13-of-20. In a game against an elite offense, the Redbirds may have difficulty getting off the field and preventing points in the second half.
Pick: Montana State -10.5
