Florida Atlantic Owls:
Things are not going well in Boca Raton, but maybe our expectations for the Owls have been too high. Two outlier seasons under Lane Kiffin with 11-3 records in 2017 and 2019 account for nearly 22% of FAU’s wins as a FBS member. COVID limited the Owls to nine games in 2020, but they’ve only won 19 games in four seasons since Kiffin went to Ole Miss and things didn’t get any better under Tom Herman last year.
The former Texas head coach led a 4-8 season with a team that lost four straight to end the season with bowl eligibility very much a possibility based on the schedule. The transfer portal was not at all kind to FAU this offseason, so it looks like another disappointing year on the horizon.
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Offense
LaJohntay Webster is now at Colorado and FAU’s top two running backs both moved on as well, as Larry McCammon, who had a 1,000-yard season in 2022, and Kobe Lewis moved on. Webster had 108 catches for 1,168 yards and eight touchdowns last season. That was 41% of the catches and 45% of the yardage from the passing game. So, this is basically a brand new offense.
Cam Fancher transferred in from Marshall and brought top target Caleb Coombs with him, but there is only one returning starter for Akron legend and former Cleveland Brown Charlie Frye on offense. That may not be a bad thing after finishing 104th in yards per play, but this is still a low-ceiling roster. Fancher had as many TD passes (11) as interceptions last year.
Defense
The story on the defensive side is a lot different, as FAU has plenty of returning production from a unit that finished 51st in yards per play and 58th in scoring defense. Top corner Jarron Morris ran out of eligibility after six years in college and big man Evan Anderson is hoping to make the San Francisco 49ers roster, but a lot of the top guys from last season do return in Year 2 for this coaching staff.
FAU was 126th in average time of possession, so this defense was asked to do a lot last year. In that respect, improvement, or at least status quo, is certainly possible if the offense can make some strides under Herman, who was the OC at Ohio State once upon a time.
Outlook
For a team that doesn’t look very good on paper, a win total of 6.5 suggests bowl eligibility is a real possibility and that would be considered a successful season for Herman and Company. My numbers put FAU at 6.03 wins, even though they are 110th in my Power Ratings. That gives you an idea of the schedule that the Owls have. And, yet, I still don’t trust this roster.
Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
