Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 10-15 minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves bettors need to know about each day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Friday's action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of big College Football games tonight…
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7:30 p.m. ET: UTSA (2-2) at Middle Tennessee State (3-1)
Both of these Conference USA rivals are coming off wins. UTSA just crushed Texas Southern 52-24 but failed to cover as 42-point home favorites. Meanwhile, MTSU just shocked 25th-ranked Miami 45-31, winning outright as 25.5-point road dogs. This line opened with UTSA listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. Currently 60% of bets at DraftKings are laying the points with UTSA. However, despite receiving a majority of bets, we've seen UTSA fall from -5.5 to -4.5. Some shops are even down to 4. This signals sharp reverse line movement on MTSU, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. We could also be looking at a shootout here. The total opened at 63 and has been steamed up to 65. Currently 65% of bets and 90% of money is sweating the over, signaling a sharp bet discrepancy. UTSA is 4-0 to the over this season. MTSU is 2-2.
10:30 p.m. ET: Washington (4-0, ranked 14th) at UCLA (4-0)
This late night Pac 12 showdown features a pair of unbeaten teams. Washington just beat Stanford 40-22, covering as 14-point home favorites. On the flip side, UCLA just crushed Colorado 45-17, covering as 22-point road favorites. This line opened with Washington listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public can't believe this line is so short and they're rushing to the book to lay the points with the ranked team. However, despite 77% of bets backing Washington, we've seen the Huskies remain frozen at -3 or even fall to -2.5 at some shops. This signals smart money grabbing the points with UCLA at home. UCLA has buy-low value as an unranked conference dog against a ranked opponent. The total hasn't budged off 64.5. Washington is 3-0-1 to the over and UCLA is 3-1 to the over.
11 p.m. ET: New Mexico (2-2) at UNLV (3-1)
These Mountain West opponents are coming off polar opposite performances last week. New Mexico got rolled by LSU 38-0, failing to cover as 31.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, UNLV beat Utah State 34-24, covering as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with UNLV listed as a 16-point home favorite. Currently 72% of bets are laying the big spread with UNLV, especially after New Mexico just got blown out by 38 points last week. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen UNLV fall from -16 to -14.5. Why would oddsmakers drop the line and hand out a better number to the public when they're already hammering UNLV to begin with? Because respected money grabbing the points with New Mexico, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor. New Mexico is only receiving 28% bets but 54% money, signaling a notable smart money discrepancy. Sharps also seem to be leaning under, as 82% of bets are taking the over but the line has fallen from 45 to 44.
