Georgia Southern Eagles:
It was a tale of two seasons for Georgia Southern last year. Clay Helton’s crew secured bowl eligibility with a win in “Modern Day Hate” over Georgia State in a 44-27 win that came on October 26. They didn’t win another game after that, including a rather embarrassing 20-point loss to Ohio in the Myrtle Beach Bowl.
The Eagles scored over 30 points per game, yet got outscored on the season, as the defense was putrid and the one-dimensional offense gave the ball away too much. Georgia Southern’s 31 turnovers tied for the most in the nation and they were one of seven teams with a TO differential of -10 or higher. On one hand, that could mean positive regression. On the other hand, who is playing quarterback?
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Offense
In Helton’s first two seasons at the helm, transfers have been his go-to guys. First it was Kyle Vantrease from Buffalo, who threw for over 4,200 yards, but also threw 16 interceptions. Next it was Tulsa’s Davis Brin, who threw for almost 3,800 yards, but had 19 interceptions. The biggest difference between Vantrease and Brin is that the former was only sacked six times and the latter was sacked 31 times.
This season, Helton has Indiana transfer Dexter Williams II, who has 38 career pass attempts with 13 completions, and JC French, who was 13-of-16 last season. It is entirely possible that somebody comes out of nowhere, but for a team with 8,218 passing yards and 3,302 rushing yards during the Helton era, figuring out a QB seems rather important.
Defense
This was not a good defense by nearly any metric last season. The Eagles allowed over six yards per play, more than 30 points per game, only had 23 sacks, and finished 114th in red-zone TD% against. They allowed 58 red-zone attempts, tied for the sixth-most in the nation. It is entirely possible that second-year DC Brandon Bailey, whose Buffalo Bulls beat Georgia Southern in the 2022 Camellia Bowl, gets more out of this group this season.
There are a lot of returnees here and one positive about being positively awful on defense is that teams don’t poach your players in the transfer portal. Of course, that also means you don’t entice a whole lot of players to come and try for more exposure or a fresh start.
Outlook
Bowl eligibility is seriously in question for Georgia Southern. They’ve made bowl games with the bare minimum six victories each of the last two years, but they’re a dog to get there this season with plus money on Over 5.5. I’m right at 5.5 with my projection, but the early-season game against Nevada might be a swing game, as I have them favored, but they may not have a full-fledged QB going into a winnable contest in Reno. I don’t foresee a good conference record.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
