Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State
After a long holiday weekend, nobody wants to be at work on Monday. But, we have a bowl game to serve as a distraction! The JLab Birmingham Bowl featuring Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State is a standalone, 2 p.m. ET affair between Sun Belt squads. There were not a lot of willing participants to go up against the Eagles, but the Mountaineers answered the call, despite their 5-7 record.
Perhaps the thought of revenge was at the forefront for Dowell Loggains and his App State crew, as the Mountaineers lost 25-23 at home back on Nov. 6. Georgia Southern gradually opened up a 19-0 lead and narrowly held off App State, but a reversal of red zone fortunes could make this game look a lot different.
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 26, 11:00 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
JLab Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Southern (-7, 59.5) vs. Appalachian State
Monday, Dec. 29, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN)
In the first meeting, the Eagles settled for four field goals ranging from 21 yards to 26 yards. They were able to move the football effectively, but just couldn’t punch it in for touchdowns. The Eagles scored on a 47-yard TD pass on their first drive and a three-yard run early in the second quarter. Otherwise, it was a parade of field goals.
All in all, it was a pretty solid offensive performance from Georgia Southern, as they racked up 494 yards, including 352 through the air. App State had 425 yards and went 4-of-6 on fourth down to tighten the gap in the game, but the Mountaineers are going to look a lot different in the Birmingham Bowl than they did in that regular season affair.
QB AJ Swann, who threw for 348 yards, is in the transfer portal, along with fellow QB JJ Kohl, who took Swann’s job later in the season. The Mountaineers are also going to be missing several defensive players, including a couple of starters in the secondary. Interestingly, this year’s Georgia Southern team had 405 pass attempts against 425 runs, though 121 of those were from QB JC French IV, as he averaged just 2.3 yards per carry.
The offensive line wasn’t very good for the Eagles, but this is an offense that historically wants to throw the football more than run it. So, it seems suboptimal that App State is missing some starters in the back seven and it will be interesting to see if Clay Helton and his coaches opt for more of a pass-heavy gameplan as a result. If leading rusher OJ Arnold doesn’t play, they will likely throw it a lot more.
The Mountaineers may not really be able to throw the ball much, as multi-time transfer Billy Wiles and freshman Noah Gillon are the only quarterbacks likely to be dressed for this one. Gillon was a low three-star recruit per 247Sports with offers to several Sun Belt schools and also Ohio in the MAC. The Tupelo native opted to go to App State and he was 13-of-32 for 111 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions in three appearances. He did get sacked four times.
Defensively, the Eagles were among the worst teams in the nation, allowing 6.54 yards per play. App State only allowed 5.7 YPP, but when you look at Sun Belt-only games, Georgia Southern allowed 6.23 and App State allowed 6.05, so it was non-conference action that made up most of the difference.
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State Birmingham Bowl Prediction
What a brutal bowl game this is. Had Georgia Southern been able to convert in the red zone, that first meeting would have been a major blowout. Against an App State defense missing a lot of components in the back seven, the nod goes to the Eagles, especially with the Mountaineers having a very unproven freshman and a guy on his third school who hasn’t really seen the field in two seasons in Boone as the QB options.
Pick: Georgia Southern -7
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