Week 10 College Football: Georgia State vs. UConn

Friday night features three games on the Week 10 college football schedule, including a non-conference clash between Georgia State and UConn. It is rare to see non-conference games at this time of the year, but the Independent Huskies have to play somebody. 

We’ll also see a couple Group of Five conferences, as Boise State continues their push for the College Football Playoff against San Diego State in Mountain West action and South Florida and Florida Atlantic meet in an AAC rivalry game to try to improve their hopes of making a bowl game.

 

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My favorite play is in Georgia State vs. UConn, so I’ll start with that one, but also hit on the other two games.

For all of this week’s college football insights, refer to our College Football Week 10 Hub.

Georgia State Panthers at UConn Huskies (-7.5, 48.5)

7 p.m. ET

The Sun Belt heads to Storrs for this one, as the Panthers and Huskies go head-to-head. UConn needs one more win for bowl eligibility in what is actually their final home game of the season. The Huskies play at UAB, Syracuse, and UMass the rest of the way, so they won’t play at Rentschler Field again until next season. They haven’t played a road game since September 14 and have only played two on the season.

They’ve played really well this season for Jim Mora Jr., as their only loss at home came against Wake Forest in a 23-20 game where the head coach felt like they got jobbed by the officials. They bounced back to beat Rice last week and the Owls subsequently fired their coach.

In this one, though, I like Georgia State. UConn has played a pitiful schedule of late, facing FAU, Buffalo, Temple, Wake, and Rice. Georgia State, who beat Vanderbilt earlier this season in what remains one of the weirdest results of the year, has played Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, Marshall, and App State. The first three all have winning records in Sun Belt play and are all playing well right now. App State usually shows better, but the talent is there.

I think this is a notable step down for the Panthers, who have really struggled defensively. UConn has only managed 4.5 yards per play in their last three games, so the Georgia State defense catches a little bit of a break here, assuming UConn continues to start Nick Evers.

Joe Fagnano played well, but there seems to be an internal dilemma with the program centered around NIL money and the QB of the future, which is Evers, given that Fagnano will be out of eligibility after the season.

Georgia State seemed to get a little bit of a spark from Zach Gibson after Christian Veilleux left hurt against Marshall. I don’t think either offense is particularly explosive and UConn’s defense numbers are a little fugazi based on who they’ve played. Georgia State’s strength of schedule is 60 spots higher (75 vs. 135) per Sagarin.

Pick: Georgia State +6.5

Other Friday Games

South Florida Bulls (-2.5, 50.5) at Florida Atlantic Owls: I don’t like either of these teams, as FAU was a team I isolated as a program to fade this season before it even began and USF has been very vague about Byrum Brown’s injury. Bryce Archie is a very clear downgrade. Both starting QBs have negative TD/INT ratios for this one. Neither defense is great. Nothing from me here.

San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State Broncos (-23, 57.5): My power ratings really like Boise State here, with a seven-point difference between the market and my numbers. However, Ashton Jeanty was banged up last week in the win over UNLV. Now that Boise State won their biggest test of conference play, their focus is on staying healthy until the MWC Title Game to secure the Group of Five CFP berth. I’m not sure we see Jeanty in the second half very often the rest of the way. So, yes, Boise State is the vastly superior team, but I don’t know that they can keep the throttle down.

San Diego State has played four close games in a row, losing to Central Michigan and Washington State. They’ve beaten Hawaii and Wyoming. They are still not special statistically and QB Danny O’Neill isn’t even playing that great, despite stats that look decent. No play here, but we’ll see how Boise State plays thing for potential future opportunities.

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