Georgia vs. Alabama
The removal of divisions in the SEC took us away from a Georgia vs. Alabama title game for one year, as the Bulldogs played Texas in last year’s game, but for the second time in three years, third time in five years, and fourth time in eight years, we’ll get the Bulldogs vs. the Crimson Tide. This is actually the eighth time in nine years that Georgia has been in this game and the fifth straight year.
No longer having divisions was supposed to give somebody else a chance, given that the only consistent opposition Georgia faced for a while in the East Division was Florida, but here we are without divisions for the second year and here Georgia is again on the familiar playing surface of Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Alabama won the regular season matchup between the hedges in Athens by a 24-21 count, but are underdogs in the neutral setting here.
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 3, 3:00 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. Check out our Conference Championship Game College Football Betting Hub.
Georgia (-2.5, 48) vs. Alabama Preview
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET (ABC)
There may be some Georgia fatigue from football fans regarding this game, but it’s hard to argue with what Kirby Smart’s team does on an annual basis, especially with the revolving door of talent that comes in and goes out to the NFL. That aforementioned loss to the Crimson Tide is the only setback suffered by Smart’s squad this season, though close calls against Tennessee, Ole Miss, Florida, and Georgia Tech were part of their path to 11-1.
Alabama actually comes in with two losses, so a lot of people believe that they need to win this game to be in the College Football Playoff, otherwise they have to hope that they’ll be the only three-loss team in the field (unless Duke somehow makes it with their five losses). A real head-scratching loss at the hands of Florida State in the opener is still something most pundits and analysts can’t explain. The loss to Oklahoma featured some bad luck, as Alabama outgained the Sooners 406-212, but finished -3 in turnovers, including an 87-yard pick-six.
Statistically, not much separates these teams. Georgia is 63rd with 5.81 yards per play on offense and Alabama is 56th with 5.85 YPP. However, one big difference is that Georgia had 0.7 YPP more on offense against SEC opponents than Alabama did and that could be the explanation behind the line movement towards the Bulldogs that we’ve seen in this one.
Defensively, the two teams are virtually in lockstep, with Georgia allowing 4.85 YPP and Alabama 4.86. Similar to the offensive side, Georgia did put up better numbers in conference play by 0.16 YPP, but the gap is not nearly as big as it was on offense.
From an advanced metrics standpoint, EPA/play favors Alabama, who CFB Graphs has eighth in the nation in EPA/play margin. Georgia is 14th, so hardly a big drop, but Alabama ranks 12th on offense and just inside the top 10 on defense, while Georgia is 13th and 17th, respectively. Turnovers have a lot to do with that, as Alabama is tied for 19th in the nation with a +8 TO margin and Georgia actually has a negative TO margin at -1. Alabama had 12 takeaways in SEC play, while Georgia only had seven, three of which came in the game against the Tide.
Putting some names to the numbers, the biggest one in this game is Ty Simpson. The Alabama QB has thrown for over 3,000 yards with a strong 25/4 TD/INT ratio as he ponders declaring early for the NFL Draft or sticking around in school for another year. Interestingly, Simpson threw two of his four interceptions in the blowout over Eastern Illinois. He was sharp in the game against Georgia, throwing for 276 yards with two touchdowns through the air, one on the ground, and no picks or sacks.
What’s been special about Simpson’s season is that WR Ryan Williams hasn’t taken the leap everybody thought he would. It’s been a by-committee approach, as Germie Bernard leads the team with 51 grabs for 700 yards, but Isaiah Horton has the most receiving touchdowns with eight. Simpson also hasn’t had the luxury of a strong ground game like most Tide QBs, as the team has rushed for just 3.7 yards per carry and everybody with at least 56 carries has averaged 4.0 yards per carry or fewer.
In that respect, that is one area where Georgia has the edge, as top backs Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens have each rushed for over five yards per carry. Frazier is actually closer to six than five, while Stockton, who leads the team with eight rushing scores, has been a more effective scrambler than Simpson. Stockton’s 20/5 TD/INT ratio is nothing to scoff at either and he’s thrown for over 2,500 yards while replacing Carson Beck. That said, Stockton has thrown a pick in each of his last three games and four of the last five.
Georgia vs. Alabama Prediction
In thinking back to the first meeting between these two, it felt like Alabama was the better team for the first quarter and a half and then they spent a lot of time simply hanging on. They got out to a 14-0 lead with two 14-play, long, sustained scoring drives, but, pardon the pun, the Tide turned after that.
Both teams are very good and I view this as more of a coin flip game, with Alabama -0.5 in my raw Power Ratings. Both teams have also had their good and bad moments, including a lot of bad for Alabama last week against Auburn, but I prefer the value on the Tide side of this one.
Pick: Alabama ML (+115)
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