Georgia vs. Texas:

We’ve got a few rematches during Conference Championship Week. The one between Georgia and Texas has College Football Playoff implications in that the winner gets a bye and the loser plays in the first round, but both of these teams have already secured a spot. The Bulldogs beat the Longhorns by 15 in Austin back on October 19. That is Texas’s only loss.

That is not the only big win for Georgia, who beat Clemson in Week 1 and also knocked off Tennessee, but this is the most vulnerable that the Bulldogs have been in years. Can Texas take advantage and win the SEC and secure a bye?

 

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Georgia Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns (-2.5, 49.5)

Saturday, 4 p.m. ET

We’ll certainly see a lot of burnt orange in the crowd, but Atlanta is a hotbed for Bulldogs fans and Athens isn’t that far away, so it will be an interesting atmosphere at Mercedes-Benz Stadium for this contest.

Georgia’s win at Texas has been a little more perplexing with each passing week, especially last week, when the Bulldogs needed eight overtimes and a feverish regulation comeback to survive rival Georgia Tech. Since the Georgia loss, Texas is 5-0 and survived at then-ranked Vanderbilt before winning the next four games by double digits.

So, current form would seem to favor the Longhorns, but who knows what that is worth in 2024? What we do know is that the turnover battle will be critically important here. Texas had four turnovers in the head-to-head meeting. Georgia had three. The Bulldogs converted two short fields into 14 points and also took advantage of some special teams mishaps that led to short fields. Texas only converted one Georgia turnover into points.

The other factor in that first game is that neither team could run the ball. Georgia had 3.6 yards per carry, while Texas had 1.1 yards per carry. It was a sloppy game both ways and I’m genuinely not sure that there’s a whole lot to take away from it and apply to this game.

What we do know is that Carson Beck had three interceptions and threw 12 overall. He came into this season with eight interceptions total and just six last season. Beck’s completion percentage is down more than 7% from last season as well, a tough pill to swallow with Georgia only averaging 4.2 yards per carry. That is a drop of well over a yard per carry from the 2023 season.

Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning have thrown nine combined interceptions against 33 TD passes. Ewers is responsible for seven of the picks and just threw his first one in four games last time out against Texas A&M.

This is a tough handicap as a result. The gap between the two teams is relatively small, but I do think Texas is the better overall team. It likely comes down to turnovers and field position. Texas lost both in the first game and got behind 23-0 by halftime. Texas made it a game with some good second-half adjustments and I think Steve Sarkisian will have his team ready.

Pick: Texas -2.5

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