Hawaii vs. UNLV
The calm before the Saturday storm features one potential banger from the Mountain West and an ACC game between underperforming teams, as Hawaii vs. UNLV is actually the better of the two games on Friday night. Of course, it doesn’t start until 10:30 p.m. ET, so it might not get a ton of eyeballs on the East Coast, but it will in this neck of the woods and more than a few VSiN people will be in attendance.
Florida State vs. NC State is the other game and it’s hard to believe that a Friday night ACC game would be less interesting than a Group of Five tilt, but a total in the mid-60s and a lot of accompanying storylines on the “9th Island”.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 19, 10:30 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 13 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Hawaii vs. UNLV (-3, 65)
10:30 p.m. ET (FS1)
For those who don’t know, Las Vegas is referred to as the “9th Island” as a very popular vacation destination for Hawaiians, but also a place where a lot of Hawaii transplants have decided to set up shop and live. That should make for some fun crowd dynamics at Allegiant Stadium in a game that does have some major Mountain West Conference implications.
San Diego State sits atop the conference with a 5-1 league record, but their lone loss came against Hawaii. There are five teams sitting at 4-2, with UNLV and Hawaii among them. From a head-to-head standpoint, Hawaii lost to Fresno State, who is also 4-2, and San Jose State, who is not. UNLV lost to Boise State and New Mexico, who are both 4-2 teams. So, this game is huge with just two weeks left in the regular season.
It really is great to see fourth-year head coach Timmy Chang finding a groove with the Rainbow Warriors and a lot of it has to do with Bishop Gorman product Micah Alejado. Alejado is one of seven Las Vegas natives on the roster and he’s been magnificent as a first-year starter at QB. He’s posted an 18/7 TD/INT ratio and completed nearly 66% of his tosses for an offense that has racked up over six yards per play in conference games.
Alejado and his teammates draw a UNLV defense that ranks 132nd in the nation in yards per play allowed with 6.64 and has allowed nearly 6.9 YPP in conference games. However, even though Hawaii’s numbers are better, the Rainbow Warriors have still surrendered 6.5 YPP to MWC foes after giving up under 4.5 YPP to non-conference opponents.
In other words, these are two teams that are far better on offense than they are on defense. The Rebels also had to endure some miserable weather conditions for their road game in Laramie, where QB Anthony Colandrea was just 11-of-20 for 102 yards. Overall, Colandrea has an 18/6 TD/INT ratio with a 67.1% completion rate and he’s rushed for over five yards per carry on 101 attempts.
Hawaii’s running game hasn’t been bad, at least if we take away Alejado’s 1.1 yards per carry on 63 attempts, but UNLV is the far more balanced offense between the two units. The Rebels have rushed for 5.6 yards per carry and Colandrea has thrown for more yards and has the same amount of touchdowns as Alejado in 35 fewer pass attempts. That said, Alejado did miss two games earlier this season with an ankle injury.
This should be an exciting game with an amped-up crowd at Allegiant Stadium, something of a rarity for UNLV football in a 65,000-seat venue with no upper bowl tickets sold. I do think that the offenses rule the day and put on a show, so I like Over 65.
But, I also like the Rebels because of the balance of their offense on the fast track. Hawaii has only allowed 4.4 yards per carry in conference play, but UNLV is 11th in the nation in yards per carry. The next closest Mountain West team is Air Force, who runs the triple option, in 25th and then Utah State in 41st, who also has a mobile QB. Air Force had 6.4 YPC against Hawaii and Utah State had 5.7.
Shop around (or wait) for a 2.5 on the spread, but I’d expect the total to go up.
Picks: UNLV -3; Over 65
Other Friday Game
Florida State (-5.5, 61.5) at NC State: ESPN has this 8 p.m. ET kickoff in Raleigh. Circa was holding -5.5 at time of writing, while most of the rest of the market was 4.5, so perhaps an indicator of what the sharp money has been on or could be on in this difficult handicap.
Florida State, despite the pedestrian record, is a bit of a metrics darling. The Seminoles are 15th in YPP on offense and 28th in YPP on defense, outgaining opponents by a little under two yards per play. That’s why they continue to be held in high esteem in the betting market. Whittle that down to just ACC play and the gap is +0.73 YPP. Still good, but not the same as the full season. Plus, they’ve had just 4.81 YPP in three November games.
NC State also has a top-30 offense by YPP, but the defense ranks 127th in YPP. Conference opponents have nearly seven yards per play against them. No bet from me here, but if you’re wondering why Florida State seems to still get a lot of market love, that’s why.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 13 games on our Pro Picks Page.
