Each week, I’ll be diving into the Heisman Trophy odds to try and help you find some in-season opportunities to get involved in this market. I’ll do that by highlighting some of the players that are trending up or down. Last week, Jalen Milroe and Travis Hunter really helped themselves, and I’ll get into that in a bit. I’ll also look at some of the biggest games of the week when it comes to Heisman implications, though none will compare to last week’s meeting between Georgia and Alabama. On top of that, I’ll also throw out some other players to watch, even if their paths to winning the Heisman might be a little unrealistic. With all of that in mind, keep reading for my Week 6 Heisman Trophy betting market update.
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(All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Heisman Trophy Odds
These are the Heisman Trophy odds going into Week 6:
- Jalen Milroe, Alabama (+250)
- Cam Ward, Miami (+500)
- Travis Hunter, Colorado (+700)
- Ashton Jeanty, Boise State (+1000)
- Dillon Gabriel, Oregon (14-1)
- Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee (15-1)
- Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (16-1)
- Quinn Ewers, Texas (20-1)
- Will Howard, Ohio State (20-1)
- Miller Moss, USC (25-1)
For the entire list of Heisman Trophy odds, go to DraftKings Sportsbook!
Trending Up: Milroe was the biggest winner of Week 5. In a meeting with Georgia that felt like a crossover between the Super Bowl and WrestleMania, Milroe threw for 374 yards with two touchdowns and added another 117 yards and two scores on the ground. Milroe did whatever he wanted against the Bulldogs in the first half. Things got a little murkier in the second half, with Alabama taking its foot off the gas and Georgia figuring things out a bit. But as soon as the Tide needed Milroe to make another play, he delivered with a big-time 75-yard touchdown to freshman Ryan Williams. Sure, Williams did most of the work on that play, as he brought in a contested ball, made two defenders miss and then accelerated to find the end zone. But Milroe threw it up and gave his receiver a chance. And overall, it was a massive performance on a crazy stage. If Alabama wins out, Milroe will end up taking this home. However, I wouldn’t play him at +250. Alabama still has road games against Tennessee and LSU, and it’s not crazy to think that the Tide will lose a game. That could give you another chance to buy in on the dual-threat quarterback. Or you can just play one of the other stars in college football, as Milroe’s performance made some prices better around the country.
Hunter also really made a case for himself in Week 5. The two-way star is PFF’s fifth-ranked cornerback in the nation this year, and he also has 46 catches for 561 yards and six touchdowns as a wide receiver. There’s nobody in the country that is doing what Hunter is doing, and it’s hard to argue that anybody is as important to their team as he is. My issue with Hunter’s Heisman Trophy candidacy is that Colorado isn’t a great football team. Last week’s win over UCF as a 12.5-point favorite was very impressive, and the Buffaloes are in a good spot in the Big 12 as of this very moment. However, we have seen some uninspiring performances out of this team already, and Colorado still has road games against Arizona, Texas Tech and Kansas on the schedule. The team will also host Kansas State, Utah and Oklahoma State. It’s hard to imagine the Buffaloes going the rest of the year without picking up another two or more losses, and I’m not sure the Heisman winner can come from a 9-3 or 8-4 team this year. I also believe that the Heisman winner needs to be in the CFP with the expanded 12-team format.
Jeanty is another player that went wild in Week 5. In a win over a good Washington State team, Jeanty rushed for 259 yards and four touchdowns. He has now gone over 200 yards in two of his four games, and he had 192 in one of the others. Jeanty has also had three games with at least three touchdowns, and he’s a highlight machine with his ability to run through contact and still break off long runs. I liked Jeanty when he was 20-1 or longer, and I noted that a couple of weeks ago. But if you aren’t already holding a ticket, you’re probably better off letting it go. Boise State would really need to win out in order for Jeanty to have a shot, as I don’t see him contending without the Broncos being the Group of Five representative in the College Football Playoff. At this price, it’s a tough bet to make.
Trending Down: Dart and Beck were the two biggest losers of Week 5. Ole Miss was upset at home in a meeting with Kentucky, and Dart struggled with a feisty Wildcats defense. His stats weren’t completely terrible, as he threw for 261 yards with a touchdown and no picks. But the Rebels simply weren’t able to score the way they were expected to, and this team is now in danger of missing the College Football Playoff. However, this isn’t the end of the road for Dart as a Heisman candidate. Ole Miss has a road game against LSU in two weeks and a home game against Georgia on November 9th. If the Rebels win both of those, Dart will be in the conversation at the top.
Like Dart, Beck isn’t completely out of this race. However, Milroe outperformed him on the big stage in the Georgia-Alabama game, and Beck’s turnovers ended up being costly. But Beck did play extremely well in the second half of that game, so he got the really bad taste out of people’s mouths. And Beck will have some other opportunities to get himself back in the mix. Georgia faces Texas and Ole Miss on the road, and the team also hosts Tennessee in the middle of November. It’ll take something special for the Bulldogs to win all three games, but this team is filled with special talent. And as weird as it is to say, I’ve never been higher on Beck after seeing him fight to keep his team in the game last week. I’m sure others feel the same way. He made some big-time throws and Georgia almost pulled off the 28-point comeback.
Week 6’s Biggest Games
Iowa at Ohio State – 3:30 pm ET
Howard isn’t somebody that has been talked about much as a Heisman candidate, but these next few weeks will be interesting for him. He has had three touchdowns in back-to-back games and is starting to look comfortable in Chip Kelly’s Ohio State offense. So, let’s what Howard can do against an Iowa team that is 32nd in the nation in EPA per play allowed and coming off a bye week. A good performance here would set up an intriguing showdown between Howard’s Buckeyes and Gabriel’s Ducks in Week 7. That would be a poor man’s Georgia-Alabama, as the winner would be in firm control of the Big Ten and the starting quarterback should come out looking great. However, Howard won’t have a lot of buzz heading into that game if he turns in a dud against the Hawkeyes.
Clemson at Florida State – 7:00 pm ET
I mentioned Cade Klubnik as a player to watch last week. He was one of my Heisman picks before the season, as I grabbed him at 50-1 odds. I also suggested playing him at those odds a couple of weeks ago, and I had him as a “player to watch” at 45-1 odds last week. Well, Klubnik is now down to 28-1 after having had three consecutive games with at least four touchdowns. He’s suddenly looking electric as a dual-threat quarterback, and his Week 5 numbers would have been even better if not for some bad drops. Klubnik is starting to quietly live up to the crazy hype he entered college with. And while this week’s meeting with Florida State is no longer the high-profile matchup we once thought it’d be, this is a night game against a big program and Klubnik can help himself in the eyes of voters by playing well here.
Utah State at Boise State – 7:00 pm ET
Keeping an eye on Jeanty is going to be important moving forward. He has just been putting up insane numbers all year long, and it feels like the running back has a real shot at winning this award. At the very least, he should be invited to New York. This week, Jeanty has another opportunity to turn in an eye-popping performance. Utah State has one of the worst rushing defenses in the country, as only 11 teams have a worse Rush EPA per play allowed. So, for as long as Jeanty is out there in this one, he should explode through gaps and rack up yards. He’s sitting on 845 yards through four games this season and getting to the 1,000-yard mark is realistic with this matchup.
Miami at California – 10:30 pm ET
If you’re wondering why I didn’t include Ward in my “trending up” section, it’s because he actually went from +450 to +500 at DraftKings Sportsbook. That move was interesting because he did have a bit of a Heisman moment against Virginia Tech, as he was nearly wrapped up for a sack late in the game and did a Brett Favre-ish pitch to Riley Williams that ended up setting up the game-winning touchdown. Of course, the Hurricanes should have won that game in more convincing fashion, and they ended up winning it on a controversial call. But Miami is still undefeated and looking like a real threat to make the College Football Playoff. So, Ward is a player that will be a factor in this race, and this week’s game against Cal will be interesting. The Golden Bears have a great defensive-minded head coach in Justin Wilcox, and he should have his team ready to go after a bye week. Cal will also be fired up with this being the first time ever that the school has hosted College GameDay. Let’s see how Ward handles the big stage and rough spot.
Players To Watch
Nico Iamaleava (15-1): Iamaleava is out there as high as 18-1 to win this award, so you can grab him at the same number that was available before the year. That feels a bit crazy to me. Iamaleava hasn’t been as good as expected early in the year, but he has still thrown for 892 yards with seven touchdowns and has another 117 yards and a score on the ground. And he’s the leader of a Tennessee team that is 4-0. Iamaleava is also coming off a bye week and gets to face a very beatable Arkansas secondary this week. It feels like he’s about to start putting things together, and a big performance in Week 6 isn’t out of the question. Iamaleava would then face a soft Florida secondary in Week 7. So, there’s a real chance his statistical profile is looking a lot stronger heading into a meeting with Alabama on October 19th. That’s a home game for the Volunteers, and I think it’s one they can win. And if they do, Iamaleava will be down to +700 or less. So, this is a number grab that I think is worth it.