Illinois Fighting Illini:

Entering coach Bret Bielema’s fourth year, Illinois is close to being a bowl team while also close to being the Big Ten’s worst team. The Fighting Illini finished 5-7 last year and fell short of bowl eligibility with a season-ending 45-43 loss to Northwestern. But the Illini also had lots of close-game luck because their largest margin of victory was six points and each of their other four wins came by three points or fewer. There’s not much to get excited about in Champaign.

Offense

Bielema has a ground-and-pound offensive system, and junior quarterback Luke Altmyer fits in due to his scrambling ability. Altmyer ran for 282 yards last season, yet he threw for only 1,883 yards and had 10 interceptions in nine starts before getting benched. It’s obvious why he transferred from Mississippi after two years — he was not good enough for the Rebels and is barely good enough to start for a bad Illini team. Predictably, the coaching staff is praising his improvement in the offseason, but we’ll need to see it to believe it. Altmyer is working behind a big run-blocking line full of veterans, anchored by New Mexico transfer J.C. Davis, and that’s the strength of every Bielema team. Kaden Feagin is a promising sophomore running back who should post some impressive numbers. The offense does have potential, if Altmyer improves.

 

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Defense

The defense that was so tough in 2022, when the Illini went 8-5 and allowed only one opponent to score more than 23 points, collapsed last year and allowed 29.4 PPG. Much of the decline had to do with losing coordinator Ryan Walters to Purdue and star cornerback Devon Witherspoon to the NFL. With five starters returning and corner Terrance Brooks added as a Texas transfer, this defense might be slightly better than last year’s debacle.

Outlook

On the bright side, Illinois has seven home games and five of those opponents (Eastern Illinois, Central Michigan, Purdue, Minnesota and Michigan State) are definitely beatable. On the flip side, will the Illini win any of their road games against Nebraska, Penn State, Oregon, Rutgers and Northwestern? Bielema went 5-7 in two of his three seasons and seems likely to win five games or fewer this time. Six wins is possible, but only if Altmyer makes dramatic strides. The roster appears to be Bielema’s weakest in four years.

Pick: Under 5.5 Wins

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