Illinois vs. Duke Odds and Picks
On Saturday, September 6th, one of the better games on the Week 2 college football schedule sees the Duke Blue Devils hosting the Illinois Fighting Illini at Wallace Wade Stadium. Heading into the season, Illinois was a popular sleeper pick to make the College Football Playoff, but beating Duke on the road could prove to be a challenge. Well, each week, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 2 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Illinois vs. Duke
Where: Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina
When: Saturday, September 6th at 12:00 pm ET
Channel: ESPN
Illinois vs. Duke Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of 3:15 pm ET on Wednesday, September 3rd. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Illinois -155, Duke +130
Spread: Illinois -3 (-112), Duke +3 (-108)
Total: Over 49.5 (-108), Under 49.5 (-112)
Illinois vs. Duke Analysis
Illinois went 10-3 a year ago, so it’s not surprising they were a preseason favorite with 19 players with starting experience returning. The Illini are well-coached, talented and experienced. However, the Blue Devils are going to like their chances of winning this one in front of their home crowd.
Last year, in Manny Diaz’s first as the head coach of the program, Game On Paper had Duke tied for 10th in the nation in adjusted EPA per play allowed (-0.15) and seventh in yards per play allowed (4.93). This was an elite defensive team, which isn’t surprising considering Diaz has been a top-notch defensive coordinator at multiple stops. And there’s no reason the Blue Devils can’t thrive on that side of the ball again. They have seven players with starting experience back, and I think there’s a good shot they stifle the Illini offense a bit.
Duke allowed only 3.7 yards per carry last season, so Illinois’ run-first offense could run into some trouble between the tackles. And while Luke Altmyer has been a good game manager for Bret Bielema’s team, I don’t quite trust him to make the throws required to beat Duke’s secondary in Durham. The Blue Devils have one of the best corners in college football in Chandler Rivers, and the defensive backs playing with him are capable of executing a gameplan. Diaz is also aggressive about dialing up blitzes, and Altmyer, and the offensive line, struggled when rushed last season.
I also love Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah, who transferred in after a stellar freshman season with Tulane. Mensah has good feel and can make every throw in the book. It’s also pretty clear he likes Duke’s system, as he threw for 389 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in a Week 1 win over FCS Elon. Of course, Mensah isn’t going to come close to touching those numbers against this Illini secondary. But he is capable of making some big-time throws, and I trust him to avoid making costly mistakes.
Realistically, this is a battle between two good defensive teams, but Duke has home-field advantage and a more talented quarterback. That’s big in a game with this small of a spread. Speaking of that small spread, Illinois is just 3-7 straight-up and 4-6 against the spread in games with lines of +3 to -3 under Bielema, according to StatSharp. Meanwhile, Duke went 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in such games under Diaz last year.
In addition to Duke looking like an intriguing play based on football alone, the VSiN betting splits also look good for Blue Devils backers. At DraftKings, Illinois was -3.5 on August 27th. However, despite most of the tickets and handle being on the Illini, the line dropped to -3. And Circa has been hesitant to hang a 3.5 out there, despite all of the action on Illinois.
The total is a little tougher to make out. The number is a little higher than I’d expect it to be, which actually leads me to believe the Under is a sucker bet. And for what it’s worth, the Over was 5-2 when Duke was a ‘dog last year. It’s also 2-1 when Illinois is a road favorite under Bielema. But it’s hard for me to get there with an Over play, as these are two teams that value the running game and have defense-first cultures.
Illinois vs. Duke Prediction
I think this is a game that Duke can win, but there’s a 3.5 out there at a reasonable number. I’d rather take that than a small plus-money moneyline play, as it wouldn’t shock me if the Illini win a low-scoring game with a late field goal. Also, for anybody that likes playing college football teasers — or alternate line parlays — I’d consider Duke +10.5 as an anchor this week. Even if the Blue Devils lose, it’s highly unlikely it’ll be by double digits.
Bet: Duke +3.5 (-120)
