Illinois vs. Indiana Odds and Picks
In what should be a fun game in Big Ten country, the Indiana Hoosiers host the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday, September 20th. These teams both feel they have what it takes to make the College Football Playoff this year, but only one of them will be 4-0 when the final whistle blows. That’s favored to be Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers squad, but the Fighting Illini have defied the odds before. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 4 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Illinois vs. Indiana
Where: Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana
When: Saturday, September 20th at 7:30 pm ET
Channel: NBC
Illinois vs. Indiana Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, September 17th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Indiana -238, Illinois +195
Spread: Indiana -6 (-110), Illinois +6 (-110)
Total: Over 52.5 (-110), Under 52.5 (-110)
Illinois vs. Indiana Analysis
It’s hard to make a call when looking at the spread in this one. Despite the fact that nearly 70% of the tickets have come in on Illinois, our VSiN betting splits page shows Indiana has moved from -3 to -6. That’s some real reverse line movement that makes the home team look like the right play. However, this spread is pretty big for a 3-0 Fighting Illini team that currently has a better EPA per play margin (0.017) than the Hoosiers (0.014).
Indiana definitely has the better quarterback in this one, as Fernando Mendoza looks like a future No. 1 draft pick, while Luke Altmyer is more of a standard college quarterback that’s out there to distribute the ball and pick up the occasional first down with his legs. That edge at the quarterback spot is pretty big considering there isn’t much between these two defenses. Plus, the Hoosiers have a massive home-field advantage. Still, I don’t see enough that suggests Indiana is worthy of a pre-game play — unless you’re throwing the Hoosiers into parlays or teasers.
If you have to take something here, you might want to look to the Under. It’s very early in the season, but Indiana is currently 25th in the nation in run frequency (60.9%). This Hoosiers team wants to get the running backs going behind a big, skilled offensive line, and doing that also makes Mendoza’s job easier. Meanwhile, while the Illini have been a little more trigger-happy in dialing up throws for Altmyer, I don’t see that being sustainable against elite competition. Illinois might be more talented than usual this season, but the team still needs to win grind-it-out games when facing other high-level Big Ten opponents.
These are also two programs that pride themselves on defense. The Illini are allowing only 7.3 points per game this year, which is something considering they played a road game against Duke. And the Hoosiers are only giving up 7.7 points per game. That number is a little less impressive for Indiana, as the team hasn’t played anyone. But Indiana gave up only 15.6 points per game last year, and Illinois allowed only 21.7. With a ton of starters back for both units, it’s hard not to put some trust in these defenses.
The Under also happens to be 11-5 in the 16 road games that Illinois has played as a road underdog under Bret Bielema, and it’s also 9-2-1 when the Illini have played teams with winning percentages of 75.0% or higher in that time. Also, while the Hoosiers have been an Over team under Cignetti, they averaged only 16.0 points per game in their two meetings with ranked opponents last year.
Our analytics guru Steve Makinen also happens to have a projected score of Indiana 27.5 to Illinois 22.7 for this game, so his numbers call for an Under. And he had an estimated total of 50.1 when predicting the line for this one, which is below the available number of 52.5.
Illinois vs. Indiana Prediction
I won’t be playing anything in this game, as I’m still trying to get a read on both programs. However, if I was forced into action, I’d go with the Under. These are two teams that have the ability to win playing smash-mouth football, and that should result in an ugly, run-heavy game. I know Illinois’ 45-19 win over Duke makes the team look explosive, but the Blue Devils gifted the Illini points with costly turnovers. Bielema is going to want to slow this thing down and give his team a chance to grind it out. Illinois isn’t winning a shootout against Mendoza.
Lean: Under 52.5 (-110)
