Independents
This originally appeared in our 2025 VSiN College Football Betting Guide released on Tuesday, August 5. Become a VSiN Pro Subscriber and get our betting guides as part of your subscription.
Well, there isn’t much to say about the Independent “conference”, as Notre Dame and UConn are the two teams without a conference affiliation this season. UMass was one of them last year, but the Minutemen are back in the MAC.
UConn was part of the AAC from 2013-19. The basketball program obviously deserves a big platform and they get it in the Big East, but the Big East dissolved into the AAC in football over a decade ago and the Huskies just play whoever they can add to the schedule these days.
As for Notre Dame, whose basketball program is part of the ACC, the football program remains an orphan, but that may be an advantage. The Fighting Irish don’t have to worry about winning a conference for their postseason placement and can also be selfish with their toys. All of the economic windfall from last season’s National Championship appearance stayed in their pockets, as they didn’t have to share with other conference members.
As a result, ND should have some nice and deep pockets for their NIL budget. They already did, but anything that adds to the pool can only help in the current landscape of college football.
The Irish are a CFP contender once again and the Huskies will flirt with making a bowl game for the second straight season and for the first time in consecutive seasons since 2007-10.
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Irish did a lot of fighting last season, as they were one of four teams to play 16 games. It was the Year 3 leap you dream of when hiring a new head coach, as Marcus Freeman went from 9-4 to 10-3 to 14-2. While the Irish ultimately fell short against Ohio State, they played some incredible defense in the playoff to offset some bad offensive numbers, especially when Riley Leonard was playing hurt.
Leonard is gone now, but a big chunk of the team remains, so the studs of South Bend are ready to try and run it back. Freeman does have a new DC, and that’s the other big development from this past offseason, but the level of continuity with this roster is a rarity in present-day college football.
Offense
The most important position on the field is the biggest question mark for ND. Leonard had a 21/8 TD/INT ratio and had 17 rushing touchdowns, as the Fighting Irish were pretty thin at WR and didn’t get as much from TE Mitchell Evans as they thought they would. But, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are both back and make up arguably the best running back tandem in the nation.
So, CJ Carr, Kenny Minchey, Blake Hebert, and Anthony Rezac all have a lot of help around them, including a couple excellent WR transfers in Malachi Fields and Will Pauling. Collectively, the QB options for ND have 21 snaps at the college level. That will put some pressure on the offensive line to not only provide some time to throw, but also open holes for a run-heavy offense.
Defense
Chris Ash is the new DC, as he replaces Al Golden, who is now the DC of the Cincinnati Bengals. Ash has been around the block at both the collegiate and NFL levels, so this really shouldn’t be a downgrade, especially with a lot of talent back. Jack Kiser and Xavier Watts are not back, as two of the three Notre Dame defenders taken in April’s NFL Draft. But, a lot of other top contributors are back.
And, as they did on offense, Notre Dame went to the portal with their newfound funds and filled a gap in the secondary with DeVonta Smith, a local player Freeman scouted when he was Cincinnati’s DC. Smith was actually originally committed to Ohio State as a four-star recruit. So, the Notre Dame defense should be on par or close to last season’s group with a lot back and some new talent on the two-deep.
Outlook
It is still wild to think that Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois last season. They do not play the giant-killing Huskies this season, but that does make the overall degree of difficulty on the schedule much higher. In fact, they have no MAC schools after playing two last year and the only non-Power Four games are Boise State and Navy. Nevertheless, they should be favored in all 12 games.
Pick: Over 10.5 Wins
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UConn Huskies
With more than 130 teams and an inherent bias towards the Power Four conferences and the College Football Playoff chase, so many things go unnoticed over the course of a season. Take, for instance, the fact that UConn won nine games for the first time since 2007. Jim Mora’s team went from 3-9 to 9-4 with the ninth win coming over North Carolina in the Fenway Bowl.
The Huskies took care of business when they were supposed to, as they won all of their games in favorite roles during the regular season and had losses by 5, 3, and 7 to ACC teams. Repeating that level of success in Storrs will not be easy, as there is a lot of turnover on the roster, but things look dramatically better now than they did during Randy Edsall Part Deux and the Bob Diaco years.
Offense
The offense was actually a source of frustration for a lot of UConn fans and bettors. It felt like Mora kept trying to force Nick Evers into the lineup, even though Joe Fagnano had a 20/4 TD/INT ratio and was obviously the better choice at the position. Evers was battling various ailments throughout the season and is more of a dual-threat option, but he had a 5/5 TD/INT ratio. It seems like the timeshare could be back again.
The 1-2 punch of Cam Edwards and Durell Robinson is just a one-punch now, though change-of-pace back Mel Brown slides up the depth chart. Edwards had 5.7 yards per carry and so did Brown, while Robinson was the home run hitter with 6.8 YPC. Top WR Skyler Bell is back after having 355 more receiving yards than anybody else. The skill positions and QB seem pretty locked in, but an OL that gave up just 14 sacks and has allowed just 44 over the last three seasons has some turnover.
Defense
Mora gave up DC duties in 2024 and that paid off quickly. Matt Brock’s defense improved by a full yard per play and 6.7 PPG. It looked dicey at first, as Maryland dropped 629 yards on the Huskies in the first game, but the unit locked down pretty well after that. Unfortunately for Brock, the top four tacklers are all gone and they combined for six interceptions, 18 QB hits, eight sacks, and 14.5 tackles for loss.
Defensive regression seems inevitable and UConn plays three teams coming off of byes when they have to play the week prior. They play Syracuse, Boston College, and Duke again and those are three games likely to hurt the season-long numbers.
Outlook
This is a tough one. The three ACC games seem to limit the margin for error, but UConn does get some games against Conference USA doormats and what will probably be a bad Ball State team. Eight wins is not out of the question with only three Power Four games this season as opposed to four last season.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
