Indiana vs. Ohio State
When the teams take the field, the hype will pick up, but the No. 1 vs. No. 2 Big Ten Championship Game doesn’t seem to have a lot of pizzazz given the seeds and the fact that these are the only two undefeated teams in the country. That’s because Indiana vs. Ohio State only decides the Big Ten title. It won’t decide a College Football Playoff berth or which team will get a bye. Both teams will get a bye, barring something really unforeseen.
While neither team has played the world’s hardest schedule – Ohio State has the 37th-ranked strength of schedule per Jeff Sagarin and Indiana has the 56th – it will be a good litmus test to see them go up against each other. It didn’t go so well for Indiana last season when the then-undefeated Hoosiers team went to Columbus and lost 38-15 in a game that really wasn’t even that close. With a new QB and a lot of new faces, we’ll see how this neutral-site affair in Indianapolis plays out.
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 3, 3:00 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. Check out our Conference Championship Game College Football Betting Hub.
Indiana vs. Ohio State (-4.5, 48) Preview
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)
Not only is this a No. 1 vs. No. 2 battle in the rankings, but some would say it’s a No. 1 vs. No. 2 battle for the Heisman Trophy. Diego Pavia has overtaken Julian Sayin at some sportsbooks as the second favorite behind Fernando Mendoza, as the Hoosiers QB would virtually be a lock with an upset over the nation’s top team and best defense.
Sayin, who gets dinged for having wide receivers like Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith to help him out, was even better than the stat sheet suggests for his first test in “The Game” against rival Michigan. Sayin threw a pick on his second pass attempt, starting 0-for-2. After that, he was 19-of-24 for 233 yards and three touchdowns.
Sayin has thrown for 3,065 yards with a 30/5 TD/INT ratio, as the Buckeyes spent large chunks of the season trying to figure out who the go-to back was. It’s Bo Jackson, but more on him in a second. Mendoza has a 32/5 TD/INT ratio with 2,758 yards. Sayin does have more pass attempts, as Mendoza’s younger brother, Alberto, got some run in the second half later in the season. Also, Indiana has 490 rushing attempts against 425 for the Buckeyes, though 64 of those belong to Mendoza and he has six TD rushes.
Mendoza deserves the shorter price and would really deserve the award with a win here. This will be the best defense he has seen. Remember, he needed a fourth-down miraculous catch from Omar Cooper to beat Penn State and was just 20-of-31 for 215 yards with a TD and a pick in the win over Oregon. Mendoza has taken nine of his 15 sacks over the last four games and Purdue didn’t come close to getting a sack against him in the finale, where he only threw 15 passes.
So, this is a really interesting handicap because it’s a step up for Indiana and it doesn’t really feel like one for Ohio State, just because of their pedigree and where the bar has been set for so long.
The stats are stellar for both teams, as Indiana is sixth in yards per play and Ohio State is 14th, with the Hoosiers slightly better with the football in conference play. But, the Buckeyes have the best defense in the nation with 3.77 yards per play allowed, a full 0.7 yards better than eighth-ranked Indiana. Ohio State’s defense has allowed 0.75 fewer YPP against Big Ten foes. The Buckeyes did not play Oregon or Iowa, but Indiana did not play Michigan or Washington, so it seems to mostly cancel out.
This is also a No. 1 vs. No. 2 battle in EPA/play margin per CFB Graphs, as the Buckeyes are tops and Indiana is right behind them. Both teams shine in so many areas. It should be a terrific game and a good showcase for two teams we likely won’t see again until Dec. 31 or Jan. 1.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Prediction
The Buckeyes are coming off of killing the elephant in the room, ending their four-year losing streak to Michigan, and the Big Ten title probably doesn’t mean as much to them as it does to Indiana. This season for Ohio State is defined by beating Michigan and repeating as champions. But, Ryan Day should have his team ready and you know Cignetti wants another crack at the Buckeyes after how last season went.
Admittedly, I don’t see a ton of equity in either team at +4.5 or -4.5, but I do like the Over 48 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indiana should be able to do some creative things and stretch Ohio State out more than anybody else has been able to. Mendoza, who might be the first overall pick in April, is far better than any QB Ohio State has faced this season, and especially recently.
Similarly, Sayin is that way and no team in the country has the Tate/Smith combo. Plus, Jackson has rushed for over 100 yards in four of the last five games, as OSU has found a real lead back.
Pick: Over 48
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