Indiana vs. Oregon Predictions
On Saturday, October 10, the Oregon Ducks host the Indiana Hoosiers at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. This game could have major implications down the road, as these are two of the best teams the Big Ten has to offer. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 7 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Indiana vs. Oregon
Where: Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon
When: Saturday, October 11 at 3:30 pm ET
Channel: CBS
Indiana vs. Oregon Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, October 9. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Oregon -265, Indiana +215
Spread: Oregon -7 (-115), Indiana +7 (-105)
Total: Over 54.5 (-110), Under 54.5 (-110)
Indiana vs. Oregon Analysis
Since Curt Cignetti took over Indiana, the Hoosiers are 8-3 against the spread in Big Ten games. They’re also 5-1 ATS when facing teams that average at least 8.0 yards per pass attempt. Meanwhile, under Dan Lanning, the Ducks are just 2-2 ATS when facing teams that allowed 4.5 or fewer yards per play. That all suggests that Indiana is comfortable facing explosive passing offenses, and Oregon has trouble running it up on teams with good defenses.
This Indiana team also has a better statistical profile than Oregon. The Hoosiers are fourth in the nation in EPA per play (0.24) and seventh in EPA per play allowed (-0.24); the Ducks are 10th in EPA per play (0.30) and 15th in EPA per play allowed (-0.14). On top of that, Indiana is third in the nation in Offense Success (53.2%) and second in Defense Success (29.1%). Oregon is a touch worse on both sides of the ball, ranking 22nd in Offense Success (48.0%) and 30th in Defense Success (37.0%). There’s also a slight edge to Indiana when it comes to early-down success. Thanks to that, the Hoosiers are first in the nation in average third-down distance (4.62). That could be significant here, as the Ducks defense is 90th in average third-down distance (6.97).
Of course, people will note that Indiana didn’t perform well in its big games a year ago. For as dominant as the Hoosiers were against bad opponents last year, they got crushed by the Ohio State Buckeyes. They also got handled pretty easily by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. But this year feels different. Indiana is a little bigger and more talented on both sides of the ball, and the quarterback situation has improved. That’s not a knock on Kurtis Rourke, but Fernando Mendoza has thrown for 1,208 yards with 16 touchdowns and only one pick. He has also rushed for two touchdowns. The 6-foot-5 junior is starting to look like the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, and he’s up to the task of going blow for blow with Dante Moore, who is currently the Heisman Trophy favorite.
Speaking of Moore, his performance against the Penn State Nittany Lions was very impressive. But as of right now, Indiana has the best passing defense in college football — and it’s about to get better with D’Angelo Ponds returning after missing the win over the Iowa Hawkeyes. So, while Moore might be comfortable playing in Eugene, the Hoosiers have the ability to make him uncomfortable very quickly.
There’s also no guarantee Moore will be playing off a successful running game in this one. While Oregon’s offensive line will look massive compared to the Indiana D-Line, the Hoosiers have been great against the run this season. And Indiana defensive coordinator Bryant Haines will be confident that his front seven can handle this challenge.
Our analytics expert Steve Makinen also had this line projected at Oregon -4.2. So, there’s a nice little edge with the road team and the 7.5.
Indiana vs. Oregon Prediction
It would have been nice to grab the Hoosiers when they were getting 10 or 10.5, but I didn’t get there in time — it happens. The 7.5 should still be enough. Indiana has a better EPA per play on both offense and defense, plus Cignetti had an extra week to get his guys ready. This should be a one-score game.
Bet: Indiana +7.5 (-115)
