Iowa State Cyclones:
Winning seasons have become a regular occurrence in Ames since Matt Campbell was hired in 2016. But – double-digit wins in a single season, as well as a conference championship – have eluded the Cyclones over that time. This season, Campbell has one of the most experienced teams in his time at Iowa State, and the Cyclones have all the pieces needed to win the Big 12 for the time in program history.
Offense
Quarterback is always the starting point, and Iowa State has one of the better ones in Rocco Becht. The redshirt sophomore comes into 2024 looking to build on a strong 2023. Becht was the fifth-best graded passer by PFF standards in the Big 12 last season, and he was tied for third in turnover-worthy play rate (2.6%). Now in his third year under Campbell, Becht could take a massive leap this season.
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Becht’s top two receivers from 2023 are back in the fold as well. Jayden Higgins (53 receptions, 983 yards) was named to the preseason All-Big 12 team. Jaylin Noel led the team in touchdown receptions (7). In all, Becht has his top four receivers back in the fold. All five starters return along the offensive line for Iowa State as well. The most productive runner is also back in Abu Sama (611 yards, 7.3 YPC).
The Cyclones were an average offense last season. They finished 62nd in EPA per play (0.063) and averaged 26.2 points per game. However, their per play average (6.2) and EPA per dropback (0.220) showed signs of an offense that was ready to explode. If Sama can give Iowa State some balance this could be one of the best offenses in the Big 12.
Defense
The Cyclones were a great defense in 2023, and with nine starters back from that group, this should be another strong season.
Iowa State’s primary strength was up front. It allowed just 3.8 yards per carry and 136.6 yards rushing per contest. That led to the Cyclones finishing 46th in opponent EPA per rush (0.058) and 26th on early downs (-0.084). Every starter returns along the defensive line this season, as does the majority of the linebacker room.
On the back end the Cyclones have one of the best defensive backs in the conference in Jeremiah Cooper. Cooper was an honorable mention All-American and First Team All-Big 12 player last season. He allowed just two touchdowns on 58 targets, broke up 10 passes and picked off five. He leads a secondary with three starters back in the fold. Despite losing another dominant defensive back in TJ Tampa, this group should be one of the best in the Big 12.
Outlook
It’s hard not to be extremely high on Iowa State this season. The team has 19 starters back in the fold, the entirety of its offensive line, a third-year quarterback and an above-average defense. The Cyclones also have a schedule that is littered with opportunities. Iowa State must face Iowa in Week 2, but it does not face Utah or Kansas State until the last two weeks of the regular season. Road games against West Virginia and Kansas will be a challenge, but this is a team that has the potential to win 10 games and the Big 12 without a doubt.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
