Iowa State vs. Arizona State:

In the old College Football Playoff format, only a Big 12 title would be on the line on Saturday in Arlington, TX. In the current College Football Playoff format, the Iowa State Cyclones and Arizona State Sun Devils are playing for a spot and are hoping for some chaos to get one of the four coveted byes.

The four highest-ranked conference champions get a bye. Right now, both Iowa State and Arizona State are outside of the top four, as Oregon/Penn State, Georgia/Texas, SMU, and Boise State would hold those spots. But, if we get a Clemson or UNLV victory, Arizona State has a good shot at a bye. Iowa State may need a lot of help to get there.

 

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Nevertheless, it is a big game with huge stakes at Jerry World and maybe a bit of a surprising matchup to crown a champion.

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Iowa State Cyclones at Arizona State Sun Devils (-2, 51)

Saturday, Noon ET

It will be an early start at AT&T Stadium with an 11 a.m. local time kickoff. Four teams tied with a 7-2 record, but Arizona State and Iowa State had enough of the tiebreakers and/or head-to-head wins for a date in the Lone Star State. The teams did not play each other during the regular season.

Not much was expected from ASU this season, as head coach Kenny Dillingham went 3-9 last season as a member of the Pac-12. The seven-win turnaround is one of the biggest in the nation and he has Sam Leavitt and Cam Skattebo to think on offense. Leavitt missed a game due to injury, but shined as a redshirt freshman with a 21/5 TD/INT ratio. He’s also the team’s second-leading rusher with 350 yards, giving him nearly 2,800 total yards.

Skattebo has been one of the nation’s top backs with 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns entering this one. Last year’s Sun Devils were led by Skattebo with 783 yards. More notably, the QB room had an 8/14 TD/INT ratio and Skattebo was one of two guys that threw a pass and didn’t have a negative TD/INT ratio.

The onus is on Rocco Becht and the Cyclone offense to keep up. Becht has thrown for over 3,000 yards with a 20/8 TD/INT ratio. He’s thrown 385 of the 399 passes this season for the Cyclones. The work has been distributed pretty evenly on the ground, where Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III both have over 100 carries with 4.9 and 4.8 yards per carry, respectively.

The Cyclones do not have that same distribution at wide receiver, where Jayden Higgins and Jaylen Noel have 147 catches for 2,081 yards. Everybody else has 87 catches for 1,015 yards. So, that will be the spotlight matchup for ASU. They’ll need to cover Higgins and Noel and make somebody else be a factor.

The Sun Devils also have a standout at WR in Jordyn Tyson, who has 75 grabs for 1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns. Three of the 19 receivers with at least 1,000 yards are in this game and it’ll be played on the fast track at Jerry World.

There are a lot of impressive accolades for the offenses. The defenses are a bit of a mixed bag. Iowa State is 18th in scoring defense and Arizona State is 33rd, allowing 19.6 and 21.5 points per game, respectively, but opponents have moved the ball on these two teams. Arizona State has allowed 5.4 yards per play in conference action and 5.6 YPP in the last eight games. Iowa State has allowed 5.9 yards per play to Big 12 foes and over six yards per play in the last five.

I think both offenses have the chance to make a little noise here. I like the Over 51 and also Arizona State. Iowa State only has 15 sacks this season and Arizona State comes in 15th in third-down conversion rate. I don’t think the Cyclones will get the Sun Devils off-schedule all that often.

But, the Cyclones have the chance to put up points against the 117th-ranked defense by TD% in the red zone. I still think ASU has more firepower and more balance.

Pick: Arizona State -2 and Over 51

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