On December 28th, the Iowa State Cyclones and Miami Hurricanes clash in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. This game is part of a Saturday slate that features eight bowl games, and it’ll be interesting to see how it goes. Keep reading for odds, analysis and predictions for this showdown. But make sure you also check out our College Football Bowl Games Hub for all of our VSiN college football betting content.

Pop-Tarts Bowl: Iowa State vs. Miami Hurricanes

How To Watch Iowa State vs. Miami

Where: Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida
When: 3:30 pm ET on Saturday, December 28th
Channel: ABC

 

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Iowa State vs. Miami Odds

Moneyline: Miami -175, Iowa State +145
Spread: Miami -3.5 (-110), Iowa State +3.5 (-110)
Total: Over 55.5 (-112), Under 55.5 (-108)

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish. They can change. Shop around for the best prices!

Iowa State vs. Miami Prediction

It’s hard to trust Mario Cristobal in a big game, but it helps that Matt Campbell has also had his struggles on massive stages. Iowa State has had a lot of success under Campbell, but the team is 1-4 straight-up and 2-3 against the spread in December bowl games under him. The team is also 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS as a neutral-field underdog under Campbell. On top of that, the Cyclones are just 10-12 ATS when facing teams that allowed 120.0 or fewer rushing yards per game with Campbell on the sidelines. They’re also just 7-21 SU and 11-16-1 ATS versus teams with winning percentages of 75.0% or better.

Some of the major advanced numbers also happen to favor Miami. The Hurricanes are first in college football in EPA per play (0.142) and 14th in EPA per play allowed (-0.082). Meanwhile, the Cyclones are 31st in EPA per play (0.056) and 20th in EPA per play allowed (-0.068). Also, Iowa State is a top-10 team when it comes to Dropback EPA per play allowed, but that’s a strength versus strength matchup with Miami. And it’s one that I’d expect Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward to win, if he ends up playing the whole game. Ward insists he’s playing in this game, and Cristobal has noted that the decision doesn’t surprise him one bit. Well, offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson is an unbelievable play caller, and he should be able to figure out a way to attack the Cyclones secondary with so much extra time to prepare. And Ward is arguably the best quarterback in college football. He can be trusted to torch any defense he sees.

Of course, Miami also has to stop Rocco Becht and a solid Iowa State offense, but it should help that the Hurricanes aren’t losing much of anything defensively in the transfer portal. They also don’t seem to have any key opt-outs. Also, while the Cyclones do have the ability to move the ball, the team can occasionally stall out against very good defenses. I know Miami had some lackluster defensive performances this year, but it’s hard to say the group wasn’t great in the grand scheme of things.

This just feels like a game that the Hurricanes should win somewhat comfortably, especially with the game being played in Orlando. Iowa State fans might travel better than Miami fans, but will the Cyclones really have the crowd when the game is being played in Florida?

Another way to play this game would be to bank on Miami’s defense struggling to contain Iowa State, which could mean an Over on the total of 55.5. If I had to play the total, that’s where I’d go with this. After all, the Over is 7-6 in Iowa State games this season, and it’s 8-3-1 in Miami games. However, I personally feel much better about the Canes covering. They have more talent than the Cyclones, and they also have players that want to prove they belonged in the College Football Playoff.

Pick: Miami -3.5 (-109 – 1.5 units)

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