Iowa vs. Iowa State Odds and Picks
The Cy-Hawk Trophy will be on the line when the Iowa State Cyclones host the Iowa Hawkeyes in Week 2 of the 2025 college football season. Each week, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 2 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Iowa vs. Iowa State
Where: Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa
When: Saturday, September 6th at 12:00 pm ET
Channel: FOX
Iowa vs. Iowa State Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of 9:15 pm ET on Wednesday, September 3rd. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Iowa State -166, Iowa +140
Spread: Iowa State -3 (-115), Iowa +3 (-105)
Total: Over 41.5 (-112), Under 41.5 (-108)
Iowa vs. Iowa State Analysis
The Cy-Hawk Series might not be appealing to the casual fan, but it’s beautiful to football purists. The games are physical, low-scoring and ugly, but I mean that in the best of ways. And six of the last 10 meetings between these rivals have been decided by one score, so you can usually count on this to be a competitive matchup. With this spread being Iowa State -3 in most spots, this year might not be any different.
Historically, this rivalry has favored the Hawkeyes. Iowa is 47-24 in 71 meetings with Iowa State, and it’s not like they piled up the wins before the 2000s. Even with the Cyclones having more success on a national level under head coach Matt Campbell, the Hawkeyes are 8-3 straight-up and 6-4-1 against the spread in the last 11 meetings. And while I tend to like this year’s Iowa State team, I have a hunch Iowa will move to 7-4-1 ATS in the last 12.
Iowa can generally be counted on to be an elite defensive team. The Hawkeyes were 13th in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.11) last season, and they were tremendous against both the run and the pass. This year should be more of the same. Iowa is stacked along the defensive line, has reliable linebackers and the talent in the secondary is in a very healthy place. That should be enough for Phil Parker, an outstanding defensive coordinator, to churn out another Top 20 defense. And I’m not sure the Iowa State offense is as good as it was last year, even if Rocco Becht is one of the better quarterbacks in the country. The Cyclones aren’t as sturdy along the offensive line, so the running game might not be as effective. And the team lost Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins to the NFL, so the wide receiver group isn’t nearly as good. With that in mind, I can see Iowa doing a sound job of containing Iowa State.
The Hawkeyes should also be better offensively this season, as they finally have a quarterback that opponents need to respect. Mark Gronowski, a high-profile portal addition from South Dakota State, is a dangerous dual-threat quarterback that should allow offensive coordinator Tim Lester to open up the Iowa playbook. And a better Hawkeyes offense should be bad news for the Cyclones.
Iowa’s passing game didn’t look great against Albany last week, but it really didn’t need to. The Hawkeyes ran for 310 yards and three scores in the game, and Gronowski added 39 rushing yards and a touchdown to those totals. That was a lopsided win for Iowa, and the team had no reason to put the ball in the air. This game, Gronowski will need to make some throws, and I don’t think that’ll be a problem. Before dipping to a 60.9% completion percentage last year, Gronowski completed at least 65.2% of his passes in back-to-back seasons with South Dakota State. And he rarely turns the ball over. He should be able to move the chains with his arm, even if he’s not going to light anybody up. And this Iowa State secondary did look burnable against Kansas State in Dublin.
I just don’t think the Cyclones will have the type of offensive success they’ll need to have in order to pull away in this game. And I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that we’ll be talking about Iowa as a better team towards the end of this season. So, if you’re looking to jump in on a side here, I’d take the points and hope this game looks like all the previous ones between these two.
I’d also give a look to the Under if you can find a 42 or 42.5 somewhere. This opened at 43 and is down to 41.5 in most spots, despite the fact that most bettors are going Over — according to our VSiN betting splits. That’s a marriage between sharp money on the Under and a game that feels like an Under when thinking about the styles of play. I like that combo.
Iowa vs. Iowa State Prediction
While it’s never easy to win in Ames, Kirk Ferentz’s team has done it before and can do it again. But there’s a 3.5 out there at -120, so I’d jump on that instead of the moneyline. While it feels like college games are rarely decided by a field goal or less, three of the last five meetings between these two have been. That said, taking the 3.5 could prove to be very valuable here.
Bet: Iowa +3.5 (-120)
