On Monday, December 30th, the Iowa Hawkeyes face the Missouri Tigers in the TransPerfect Music City Bowl. This is the only bowl game on the schedule for Monday, and it’ll be interesting to see how this one goes. Keep reading for odds, analysis and predictions for this showdown. But make sure you also check out our College Football Bowl Games Hub for all of our VSiN college football betting content.

TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Missouri Tigers

How To Watch Iowa vs. Missouri

Where: Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee
When: 2:30 pm ET on Monday, December 30th
Channel: ESPN

 

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Iowa vs. Missouri Odds

Moneyline: Missouri -155, Iowa +130
Spread: Missouri -3 (-102), Iowa +3 (-118)
Total: Over 40.5 (-108), Under 40.5 (-112)

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish. They can change. Shop around for the best prices!

Iowa vs. Missouri Prediction

Iowa has quarterbacks Cade McNamara and Marco Lainez in the transfer portal, and cornerback Jermari Harris and running back Kaleb Johnson are opting out. The Hawkeyes also have a few injuries they’re dealing with, with the status of right tackle Gennings Dunker and defensive end Brian Allen being up in the air — but probably not looking great. Meanwhile, the Tigers will be without star wideout Luther Burden, as well as right tackle Armand Membou. The latter is a big blow considering starting center Connor Tollison is also out.

If Missouri was healthy for this game, I would have said that there was no chance Iowa would be able to keep up with Brady Cook and the the Tigers passing game. After all, when looking at some of the matchups in this one, the one that sticks out the most is Kirk Ferentz’s passing game against Missouri’s passing defense. This season, the Hawkeyes are 98th in college football in Dropback EPA per play (-0.040), and the Tigers are 35th in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.050). However, with Burden not playing for Missouri, and two starting linemen out against a good Iowa defensive front, I’m not sure Cook will be able to do much more against a very good Iowa secondary. The Hawkeyes are 13th in the nation in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.085).

With all of that in mind, I think the only play worth making in this game is the Under. The Hawkeyes weren’t the automatic Under in 2024 that they were in 2023, as Brian Ferentz is no longer the offensive coordinator for Iowa. In fact, the Over was 9-3 in the 12 games the Hawkeyes played this season. However, the Under was 7-5 in the 12 games Missouri played. It was also 4-0 in the four non-conference games the Tigers played. Also, Iowa’s meetings with very good defenses mostly ended in low-scoring games. Well, this is a very good Missouri defense.

I just don’t really see either team having much success in the passing game in this one, and Iowa won’t even have Johnson as a home-run hitter out of the backfield.

Pick: Under 40.5 (-112)

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