Week 11 College Football: Iowa vs. UCLA

We had games played in pairs on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, but we’ll have two pairs of games on Friday, as eight teams take the field on November 8. The ACC, AAC, Big Ten, and Mountain West are all represented with a slew of single-digit lines, so maybe we’ll get some compelling games out of this set of kickoffs.

Cal at Wake Forest, Rice at Memphis, Iowa at UCLA, and New Mexico at San Diego State are our viewing and betting choices, with road favorites in Winston-Salem and Los Angeles. Let’s start with that Iowa/UCLA game and move forward from there.

 

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Iowa Hawkeyes (-5.5, 44.5) at UCLA Bruins

9 p.m. ET (FOX)

Opinions of UCLA have changed over the last few weeks, as they beat Rutgers on the road prior to the bye and then topped Nebraska on the road going into this short-week game at home. Those are two nice wins for the Bruins, who overcame what has been a tough season for teams traveling two or more time zones in conferences like the ACC and Big Ten.

Well, that’s what Iowa will do here, as they go on their first long trip of the season. They’ve played in Minneapolis, Columbus, and East Lansing otherwise, losing two of those three games. In a tale as old as time, Iowa continues to get very little from the QB position, as Cade McNamara and Brendan Sullivan have combined for an 8/5 TD/INT ratio and just 1,200 passing yards. RB Kaleb Johnson has more yards on the ground (1,279) in 170 rush attempts.

The story is the opposite for UCLA, as Ethan Garbers has had some issues taking care of the ball with a 10/9 TD/INT ratio, but the running game has basically been non-existent. The longest run for a non-QB is 22 yards. Garbers has a 57-yard run to his name, but that accounts for nearly 10% of UCLA’s rush yardage. He has thrown for over 1,700 yards, though, including 383 in the upset win over Rutgers back on October 19.

Garbers has a 6/0 TD/INT ratio in the two wins, so simply math would tell you that he had a 4/9 TD/INT ratio prior to that. Iowa has long been a defense that forces a lot of takeaways and this season is no different. The Hawkeyes have 17 takeaways against seven giveaways. UCLA, meanwhile, is -5 in TO margin.

For what it’s worth, Rutgers only has nine takeaways and Nebraska has 12, but eight of those were in September, as they have not been playing very well in any facet of the game lately.

I think this is a tough matchup for UCLA with Iowa’s physicality and the pressure that they can put on the passing game. However, UCLA has a top-20 run defense with 3.3 yards per carry allowed and Big Ten teams only have 3.5 YPC. They do have 12 rushing touchdowns, but the Bruins have done well against the run and just held Nebraska to fewer than three yards per carry. I do lean towards Iowa, but in seeing how well UCLA has done against the run, I think this is a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Under 44.5

Other Friday Games

Cal (-7) at Wake Forest: The “early” game is at 8 p.m. ET in North Carolina, as the Golden Bears are a long way from home on Friday night. It isn’t a short week, though, because they had last week off, so the travel isn’t nearly as big of a concern as it has been in their other trips east. Wake Forest is also off of a bye after heading to Palo Alto to beat Stanford 27-24.

On the surface, it’s a big number for Cal. In conference, Cal is +0.16 yards per play and Wake is -0.5, so that is a pretty big difference. Cal has also played a better ACC schedule with Miami and Pitt, though Wake Forest did get rocked by Clemson. Cal had chances to beat both Miami and Pitt. I’m not eager to lay 7, but Cal is a good team with a mediocre record.

Rice at Memphis (-9, 52.5): It seems like the betting market has upgraded Rice after the firing of Mike Bloomgren. The Owls took some money last week against Navy and won outright. They’re taking money again here. 

For a 7-2 team, Memphis has been unimpressive. They’ve got one-score wins over Florida State, North Texas, and Charlotte, and just gave up a million passing yards to UTSA. It’s probably a big ask for Rice to ride the bounce two weeks in a row, but Memphis is not a reliable favorite in my eyes.

New Mexico at San Diego State (-3, 66.5): Two very inconsistent Mountain West teams here. New Mexico has played some very high-scoring games. Last week’s game against Wyoming hit 94 points and the live betting total was well over 100. SDSU hasn’t scored more than 27 points against a FBS team this season. New Mexico has done it four times in the last five games.

UNM is -8 in TO margin because Devin Dampier is a YOLO QB. He’s accumulated nearly 3,000 total yards and 23 TD. He’s also thrown 12 picks. SDSU has 13 offensive TD total and only one running back has more than 13 carries. I get why the line is what it is, but I think New Mexico wins outright here.

Pick: New Mexico +3

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