Iowa vs. Vanderbilt
On Wednesday, December 31, the Iowa Hawkeyes and Vanderbilt Commodores clash in the 2025 ReliaQuest Bowl at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay. This might not seem like a box-office matchup, but these are two very good football teams. Also, while other rosters are being purged by the transfer portal, opt-outs, and injuries, these teams both come into this game in great shape. In fact, Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said he expects to have pretty much his entire team here, and star tight end Eli Stowers seems like the only impact player opting out for Vanderbilt. With that in mind, this will be a legitimate dance between these two programs, so keep reading for our Iowa vs. Vanderbilt betting preview.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of December 27, 2:00 pm ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits.
ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt (-4.5, 46.5)
Wednesday, Dec. 31, 12:00 pm ET (ESPN)
Vanderbilt had a pretty strong College Football Playoff resume, as the team finished 10-2 and earned wins over some solid SEC teams. However, in the end, the Commodores weren’t deserving of a spot, so they’ll look to end the year with a win over the Hawkeyes.
This is a game in which bettors are lining up to back Vanderbilt, as the team has a superior record, plays in the more popular conference, and has the Heisman Trophy runner-up, Diego Pavia, playing quarterback. But I’d be careful betting against Ferentz in this spot. Under the legendary head coach, the Hawkeyes are 46-22-3 against the spread when facing teams that average 8.0 or more yards per attempt through the air. Also, Vanderbilt is 33-12 ATS when taking on teams that average at least 5.25 rushing yards per carry. Ferentz has seen good offensive teams before, yet he always seems to have an answer. He’s also 6-2 ATS with Iowa when playing in December bowl games.
The Hawkeyes also happen to match up pretty well with the Commodores. While Pavia is an electric playmaker, Iowa is a top-five team when it comes to Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.260). That means this defense is a good match for a Vanderbilt team that is third in Dropback EPA per play (0.309). The same also goes for the running game. The Commodores might be ninth in the nation in Rush EPA per play (0.157), but the Hawkeyes are extremely competent going up against the run.
Special teams could also tilt things in Iowa’s favor here. The Hawkeyes are third in the nation in CFB Graphs’ numbers for field position on offense (32.21) and 10th on defense (25.94). Well, the Commodores are just 60th on offense (28.52) and 49th on defense (27.57).
I also think the Iowa offense is going to be able to move the ball in this one. The Hawkeyes can be pretty ugly to watch on offense, but the Commodores aren’t even a top-50 team when it comes to Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.006). So, there could be throws to be made for Iowa, and we know this team is going to have some success running the ball.
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt ReliaQuest Bowl Prediction
Vanderbilt probably has more talent than Iowa, plus the Commodores performed at a high level in a tough conference. However, the Hawkeyes are an elite defensive team, and Ferentz is going to have his guys motivated for this one. That said, I’d take the points with Iowa — and I’d also sprinkle the moneyline.
Pick: Iowa +5 (-110 – 1.5 units) & Iowa ML (+180 – 0.5 units)
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the college football games on our Pro Picks Page.
See our Bowl Game Betting Hub for more previews and predictions.
