James Madison Dukes:
There are a lot of layers to returning production and the debate surrounding how much it matters. There is no debate with James Madison. And it isn’t just the loss of production on the field. It is also the loss of an incredible head coach in Curt Cignetti. Cignetti is 119-35 in his career, including a 33-5 FCS record with James Madison and a 19-4 FBS record that finished with a spot in the Top 25.
Cignetti is now at Indiana and Bob Chesney takes over after accumulating a 111-46 record, including a 44-21 mark and a 28-4 record at Holy Cross. The 46-year-old Chesney takes over with 14 years of head coaching experience under his belt. Here’s the thing, though. He’s now coaching at a place with very high expectations, as opposed to being the guy setting the bar.
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Offense
Returning starters are hard to find on James Madison’s depth chart, but it is possible that the numbers QB Jordan McCloud put up are repeatable. That’s because former Washington starter Dylan Morris looks to be in line to usher the Dukes into a new era. McCloud came a little short of 4,000 total yards, including 3,657 as a passer. He accounted for 43 total touchdowns. It is a high bar for Morris to reach, but the returning starters all come from the offensive line.
The tough part is replacing two 1,000-yard receivers in Elijah Sarratt and Reggie Brown, but Morris has weapons. Ayo Adeyi from North Texas will help balance out the offense and it is my belief that Chesney will look to run a bit more often than Cignetti did. Adeyi ripped off 7.2 yards per carry and George Pettway is also in from North Carolina, along with Holy Cross’s Tyler Purdy.
Defense
If the ground-and-pound, ball-control offense works, that should help the defense withstand some very heavy losses. This was an elite defense last season that allowed just 19.5 points per game to rank 20th and just 4.96 yards per play to rank 16th. Chesney brought OC Dean Kennedy with him, but turns to former Duke co-DC Lyle Hemphill.
Pulling from the Mike Elko coaching tree for defensive help is probably a good idea. Hemphill also worked under Dave Clawson, another fine mentor. We’ll see if Hemphill is an instant miracle worker because James Madison loses most of their 45 sacks and 21 takeaways.
Outlook
This is arguably one of the hardest teams in the nation to rate. This is a well-run program that has picked another proven winner to captain the ship. But, there is an immense amount of talent and depth that has exited Harrisonburg, Virginia. My projections call for 8.77 wins, but, admittedly, I’m banking a lot on Morris and the running game. The defense could be a major work in progress.
Pick: Over 8 Wins
