James Madison vs. Oregon
The winding road that got us to a James Madison vs. Oregon first-round game in the College Football Playoff won’t be the subject of an ESPN 30-for-30, but it could lead to an overhaul of the CFP and the criteria to get into the field of 12. But, that’s a discussion for another day, as Dukes vs. Ducks is right here in front of us.
Cinderella stories make March Madness what it is, but the climb has fewer footholds and is a lot steeper in football than it is in basketball. CFP executives are certainly hoping to see Oregon and the Nike brand in the next round, while those who root for David over Goliath or simply root for chaos would love to see the heavy underdogs from Harrisonburg, VA pull off the upset.
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CFP First-Round Game: James Madison vs. Oregon (-21, 47.5)
The Dukes got some help from Duke and now the Ducks have to play the Dukes in the first round of the College Football Playoff. The expanded 12-team format was designed in such a way that the Group of Five would end up with one representative, as the five highest-ranking conference champions would gain automatic entry into the field. What was not accounted for in that whole equation was what we saw from the ACC.
Duke emerged from a five-way tiebreaker to play and beat Virginia, which would have been in with a win. Instead, the Sun Belt champs get in after a 12-1 showing with a lone loss to, ironically, ACC member Louisville on their ledger. This isn’t really the scenario that the CFP Committee was looking for with a team whose “best” win came against 60th-ranked Old Dominion per Jeff Sagarin’s final regular-season rankings.
Oregon, a top-five team in Sagarin’s list, has been hovering around a three-touchdown favorite, as Dan Lanning looks to take advantage of the step down in class after a humiliating loss to Ohio State in last year’s quarterfinals after winning the Big Ten and receiving the #1 seed. This year’s Ducks played a top-20 schedule and finished the regular season nearly +3.0 in yards per play differential. Their lone loss came against Indiana at home, but they were good otherwise.
The Dukes can’t help who they play given their placement in the Sun Belt and there is no real upside to playing them in non-conference action. So, they’re simply forced to do what they’re supposed to do and meet or exceed expectations. By EPA/play margin, JMU was a top-20 team and Bob Cheney’s squad boasted a top-five defense in yards per play allowed. He’s on his way to UCLA after the Dukes’ playoff run is over, a well-deserved bump given how he has upheld the program standards after Curt Cignetti was hired by Indiana.
The prep period hasn’t gone by without distractions for Oregon either, as Lanning is still there, but both coordinators have accepted head coaching jobs. OC Will Stein returned to his home state of Kentucky to lead the Wildcats and DC Tosh Lupoi did the same to go back to his alma mater and be the head coach at Cal. This is simply what success breeds in college football and it is something that the players just have to roll with, but it does shift some of the focus from the task at hand to the tasks ahead for these coaches.
Stein’s departure has created an even more interesting situation for Oregon QB Dante Moore, who has an NFL Draft decision to make when this run ends. Moore stepped into the cleats of Dillon Gabriel to post a 24/6 TD/INT ratio with a 72.5% completion rate in this pitch-and-catch offense. It hasn’t all been on Moore, as Oregon’s top four running backs by carries all have 5.9 yards per rush or more, but he is the facilitator of the offense.
James Madison QB Alonza Barnett III owns a 47/12 TD/INT ratio in two seasons as the team’s starter. He’s also the second-leading rusher with 544 yards behind Wayne Knight, who has 6.6 yards per pop on 190 attempts. Collectively, these teams have combined for 156 plays of 20+ yards, with 74 of them from James Madison and they are also in the top 10 in plays of 30+, 40+, and 50+ yards, so the Ducks will have to be responsible and limit explosives to avoid a potential disaster.
James Madison vs. Oregon CFP Prediction
This game feels tailor-made for Lanning to do what he does best. He plays the bully role very well, as Oregon’s quick-strike, open-field offense allows their athletes to do almost whatever they want in space. It is very hard for inferior teams to defend that and defend big plays. But, when Lanning faces comparable or better opposition, his teams fall short. As great of a story as Chesney and the Dukes are, this is a massive talent mismatch.
Also, from a tinfoil hat standpoint, behind closed doors, there may be some urging from other coaches and power-conference officials for the Ducks to really lay one on the Dukes here so a very lucrative playoff spot has a better chance of going to a bigger program in the future with an overhaul of the system.
Pick: Oregon -21
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