Kansas State vs. Arizona
We’ve got three games on the slate for Friday night, as the Week 3 college football schedule has some nice appetizers for us prior to Saturday’s main courses. Kansas State vs. Arizona is the game that most eyes will be on, but Colorado vs. Houston and New Mexico vs. UCLA are games with varying levels of intrigue themselves.
We’ll be covering all of the Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday college football games as their own write-ups, as referenced in our VSiN Football Article Calendar, plus Zachary Cohen is doing some spotlight Saturday games. Not to mention, we have best bets for the week from Steve Makinen, Dave Tuley, Wes Reynolds, and Matt Youmans, so there is no shortage of college football coverage.
See our Pro Picks page for more college football picks and predictions.
For all of this week’s college football insights, refer to our College Football Week 3 Hub.
Kansas State Wildcats (-1.5, 53.5) at Arizona Wildcats
9:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
Kansas State is off to an uninspiring 1-2 start, as their only win came against FCS North Dakota. While the Fighting Hawks are a good team by FCS standards, that win has been overshadowed by a pair of three-point losses to FBS teams. The loss to Iowa State in Dublin in what felt like a toss-up game wasn’t a huge deal, but the loss to Army as more than a two-touchdown favorite was a different story.
Kansas State possessed the ball for just 3:01 in the second half of that defeat and blew a 13-0 first-half lead. Chris Klieman usually gets a lot out of his teams, but Avery Johnson hasn’t found many good running lanes with just 4.3 yards per carry overall and 35 yards on 11 carries in the two FBS losses. He’s mostly taken care of the ball and limited sacks, with one pick vs. Army and only one sack against Iowa State. K-State also has 6.3 YPP in the two FBS games, but three turnovers have been too much to overcome.
Defensively, they’ve held all opponents to 4.38 yards per play and the two FBS opponents to just 4.13 YPP, though Army ran the ball 70 times last week. They ran 82 offensive plays to Kansas State’s 43. But, you can see that Kansas State’s lopsided YPP differential and a lot of positive offensive plays have registered in the minds of bettors now that the visitors are favored here.
Arizona pummeled Hawaii in a terrible spot for the Rainbow Warriors to open the season and then crushed FCS Weber State. The home Wildcats are +7 in turnover margin through two games for second-year head coach Brent Brennan, who went just 4-8 overall and 2-7 in Big 12 play last season. Life without Tetairoa McMillan hasn’t been an issue for Noah Fifita yet with a 6/0 TD/INT ratio and a 66.7% completion rate, but he has taken five sacks and was only 13-of-23 for 161 yards against Hawaii.
Five of Fifita’s six passing TDs came against Weber State (yet another team named the Wildcats), who is ranked 166th out of 265 Division I football teams ranked by Jeff Sagarin. Kansas State, despite the 1-2 start, is 57th in his rankings. Arizona is 64th. And this will be the first test for an Arizona defense that allowed over 6.3 yards per play last season and ranked 115th in the nation. That was just shy of a yard per play more than the 2023 team allowed when they were 57th in the nation.
It felt like bettors and bookmakers alike didn’t know how to line this game early in the week, but the influential market-makers seem to have a grasp of the situation and they like Kansas State. My Week 3 College Football Power Ratings have this line right at -1.5, but it was -4 for me before adding a secondary adjustment to Kansas State. Maybe it wasn’t warranted.
Pick: Kansas State -1.5
Other Friday Games
Colorado at Houston (-5.5, 45.5): We’ve seen some upward movement on Houston as a home favorite here against Colorado. The Buffaloes had a chance to put a beating on somebody last week and narrowly covered 23.5 against Delaware in a 31-7 win that saw third-string QB Ryan Staub look better than pricey Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter and pricey 2025 recruit Julian Lewis.
Houston hasn’t played anybody really, but they’ve outscored Stephen F. Austin and Rice 62-9 through two games and it wouldn’t be the least bit shocking to see a team coached by Willie Fritz take a big leap in Year 2. Fritz matched Dana Holgorsen’s final-season record at 4-8 in the program’s first year in the Big 12, but it does look like Fritz will top that, especially if his team starts 3-0 here. No strong opinion here, but transfers Conner Weigman (Texas A&M) and Dean Connors (Rice) have been outstanding so far for the Cougars.
New Mexico at UCLA (-15.5, 52.5): Have to be honest, it’s still wild to think about a 10 p.m. ET Friday night game on Big Ten Network.
The Nico Iamaleava era has not started out well in Pasadena, as UCLA is 0-2 with losses to Utah and UNLV. While the 33 points on offense are a problem, the 73 points allowed may be an even bigger problem. New Mexico knocked off an Idaho State team that gave UNLV a hell of a time back in Week 0 on the heels of a pretty competitive effort in the Big House against Michigan. Jason Eck has injected new life into the Lobos, who aren’t going to be afraid of anybody. It’s a huge step down in class for UCLA and a potential “get right” game, but I can’t lay it or take it. A slight lean towards the Under, which was priced better at shops not named DraftKings or FanDuel at time of writing.
