Kansas State Wildcats:

Kansas State returns only 12 starters from last season, and eight come back on the defense. Despite losing a ton of production on offense – including the all-time leader in touchdown passes in Will Howard – hopes are high in Manhattan. The Wildcats are the second choice on the board to win the Big 12 and much of it has to do with a true sophomore quarterback with a ton of potential who is one of the top choices to win the Heisman Trophy.

Offense

Avery Johnson played in only seven games and started just once last season, but the potential for the former four-star prospect is clear. As a freshman in the bowl game against NC State, he threw two touchdowns and ran for another. In his seven appearances, he accounted for 12 total touchdowns and 790 total yards.

 

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Johnson will have some help at the skill positions. DJ Giddens returns at running back after a massive season in which he totaled 1,552 yards from scrimmage and scored 13 touchdowns. Jayce Brown – another sophomore – led the team in yards per reception (16.2) and yards per route run (2.38) in 2023.

Kansas State finished 25th in overall EPA per play in 2023. The loss of a starting quarterback to Ohio State and a completely rebuilt offensive line could mean a step back for the Wildcats. But, if Johnson progresses like many believe it would not be a surprise to see the Wildcats at least replicate their offensive success last season, if not surpass it.

Defense

The Wildcats’ defense is a candidate to improve this season as well. Eight starters are back from a unit that finished 29th in the country in opponent EPA per play (-0.033). Kansas State is strong at all three levels despite not having a single defensive player on the All-Big 12 preseason team.

One of the biggest areas of improvement for the Wildcats is against the run. Kansas State allowed 5.1 yards per carry and 159.3 rushing yards per contest, which ranked them 50th in EPA against the run. Three of their opponents this season finished as top-30 rushing offenses last season, so this weakness will be tested.

With that in mind, this should be another top defense in the Big 12 and another ranking inside the top 30 in opponent EPA per play should be expected. Of the two facets, this is by far the biggest strength and most known commodity for Kansas State this season.

Outlook

The upside is great for Kansas State, but the downside is a possibility. Johnson has just 72 dropbacks in his career. The offensive line is down four starters from last season. The Wildcats also draw a challenging schedule. The potential is there, but it is hard to realistically project 10 or more wins for the Wildcats this season.

Pick: Under 9.5 Wins

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